S&P500 has slumped 13.7% in Dec, largest percentage fall since 1931! Has the bull market ended? (Guest Post)

S&P500 has slumped 13.7% in Dec, largest percentage fall since 1931! Has the bull market ended? (Guest Post)

This post was originally posted here. The writer is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as el15, with 200+ followers.

Image result for bull market

Dear all

After hitting an intra-day high of 2,941 on 21 Sep 2018, S&P500 has tumbled 17.9% or 525 points to close 2,416 on 21 Dec 2018. In fact, S&P500 has just logged the worst monthly performance in Dec since 1931! Dow has also fallen 3,535 points from the intraday high of 25,980 on 3 Dec 2018 and 4,507 points from the intraday high of 26,952 on 3 Oct 2018. What is happening? Is Armageddon coming?

Most things have not changed since 21 Sep, except for…

In Sep, when S&P500 hit 2,940, the usual concerns were also there, namely trade tensions; U.S. 10Y treasury yields above 3%; Brexit; concerns on Europe; peak in earnings growth in U.S. market; slowing global growth etc. Since then, nothing much has changed except that

a) Part of the yield curve has inverted

On 3 Dec 2018, the yield curve for U.S. 3Y note and U.S. 5Y note inverted. According to the chief economist of North America at The Conference Board, he wrote in an article posted on MarketWatch 10 Dec 2018 that from the time that the above yield curve inverts, a recession typically starts from nine to 69 months, with an average of 27 months (i.e. more than 2 years).

For the more closely watched indicator i.e. the spread between the 10-year note and the 2-year note, it is still positive and not inverted. Although the spread between the 10-year note and the 2-year note has been narrowing / flattening, some strategists have noted that a flat curve can last for years and the economy can still be strong. According to an article by BMO Capital Markets in June 2018, BMO found that the S&P 500 has appreciated an average 12.3% when the yield curve was flattening vis-à-vis a 7.9% gain amid a steepening yield curve for all periods since 1980. In addition, BMO found that the S&P 500 can still rise an average 14.3% during the later stages of flattening cycles (from 50 bps to 0 bps).

b) U.S. and China have agreed on a trade truce for 90 days

U.S. and China have agreed on a “cease fire of sorts” on trade for 90 days. Notwithstanding the arrest of Huawei’s CFO in Canada and other negative headline news, it seems that China and U.S are still making some progress on the trade front post the dinner between President Trump and President Xi (i.e. it seems relatively better now than in Sep on the trade front)

c) U.S. 10Y treasury yields have dropped from >3% to 2.79%

U.S. 10Y treasury yields have dropped from >3% in Sep 2018 to 2.79% on 21 Dec 2018. This seems to be a net positive for stocks as this may reduce long term borrowing costs and increases the appeal of equities vis-à-vis bonds.

Has the bull market ended?

Nasdaq has slipped into a bear market with the 3% drop on last Fri. Most readers will be wondering whether the 9 or 10 year bull market has ended.

According to most strategists, the equity bull market typically ends when some of the conditions happen. For simplicity, I only list three conditions below (i.e. the list is not exhaustive).

a) Inverted yield curve

As per above, the yield curve is flattening but has not inverted yet. According to Blackstone, they do not believe that the yield curve is going to invert soon.

b) Negative earnings growth

It is common knowledge that 2018 likely marks the peak in earnings growth for U.S. corporates. However, it is noteworthy that a peak in earnings growth in 2018 does not necessarily mean a decline in earnings in 2019. For CY 2019, based on Factset, analysts estimate earnings growth of 8.3% and revenue growth of 5.5%.

Chart 1: Earnings and revenue growth in 2019

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Another Federal Interest Rate Hike and Lowers 2019’s Rate Hike Projection

Another Federal Interest Rate Hike and Lowers 2019’s Rate Hike Projection

The hawkish US Federal Reserve just did an interest rate hike, again. It’s the 4th and final rate hike of year 2018.
Image result for jerome powell

The Central Bank’s benchmark interest rate was raised 25 basis points from 2.25 to 2.5 percent. It’s also the ninth increase since the Federal Reserve (Fed) began raising rates from near-zero back in 2015.

Key highlights from yesterday’s FOMC meeting:

  1. The Federal Reserve (Fed) take the target range for its benchmark funds rate to 2.25 percent to 2.5 percent.
  2. Central bank officials now forecast two hikes next year, down from three rate raises previously projected.
  3. However, the Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to include in its statement that further “gradual” rate hikes would be appropriate.
  4. GDP is now seen as rising 3 percent for the full year of 2018, down one-tenth of a percentage point from September, and 2.3 percent for 2019, a 0.2 percent point reduction.
  5. FOMC pointed out to three more moves in 2019 and possibly another one in 2020.

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Sunpower (5GD): Gathering steam | Current: $0.30 | Target: $0.45 | Upside: +50% (Guest Post)

Sunpower (5GD): Gathering steam | Current: $0.30 | Target: $0.45 | Upside: +50% (Guest Post)

This post was originally posted here. The writer is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as KennyChia, with 200+ followers.

Introduction

The recent 40+% sell-down of Sunpower caught my attention as it has always been on my watchlist due to its strategic positioning in the “Green” China economy. Upon further research, it seems that the event-driven selldown had nothing to do with the fundamentals of the company, which in fact were improving (increasing order book size, earnings, and operating cash flows). In order to keep this post brief, I have attached useful sources below that goes into detail the long-term investment merits of Sunpower as well as the recent events that transpired.

The Event – America 2030 Capital

In summary, Guo Hongxin (Founder & Executive Chairman) and Ma Ming (Executive Director), made personal loans by collateralizing their Sunpower shares (approx 1.89% of Sunpower’s total issued shares). The lender is America 2030 Capital. However, the collateral was allegedly forfeited as they had breached terms in the loan contract (this is currently being disputed between borrower and lender). Hence, America 2030 Capital took control of the collateralized Sunpower shares and supposedly sold in the open market, which caused the sell down.

Guo and Ma then obtained an interim injunction to prevent America 2030 “from selling or otherwise dealing in company shares which were used as collateral for personal loans”. They also “lodged a report with the Commercial Affairs Department of the Singapore Police Force over the loan agreement with America 2030”.

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2018 XIRR Performance & Networth Updates (Guest Post)

2018 XIRR Performance & Networth Updates (Guest Post)

This post was originally posted here. The writer is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as 3Fs, with more than 1,000+ followers.

Time really flies these days when we are in our mid 30s, pegged by a combination of busy work and heavy loads of watching our children grow as each year past by.

I wanted to wrap things up for the year given that I will be taking a holiday trip to Bali with my family for the next few days until Christmas, and wanted to do a reflection of my equity performance this year before I then wrap things up for 2018 on an overall scale.

I received some good feedbacks last year on how I presented with my performance review, especially clearly positioning my winners and losers so I thought I’d continued with the same format for this year.

Please bear with me as this will be a pretty long post.

Overall Market Thoughts

This was a tough and rough year for investors because this was supposed to be an expansion year where interest rates are going higher because the economy is improving and there wasn’t a clear sign of global slowdown in the economy yet the market experienced some of the highest volatility we’ve seen in many years due to the trade wars and other stuff.

All major indexes including the DJI, S&P, Nasdaq, HKEX, Nikkei, DAX were all down for the year and STI was not spared either.

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The Feared Inverted Yield Curve is Often Useless (Guest Post)

The Feared Inverted Yield Curve is Often Useless (Guest Post)

This post was originally posted here. The writer is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as kyith.

Yesterday, I posted the latest yield that you can get if you purchase the Singapore Savings Bonds.

And a few readers main comment is that the yield curve is inverting and we should be careful.

As you can see from the 1 year and 10 year SGS bond yield, the yields look to be narrowing.

And if the yield inverts, it is a really bad thing.

I think there is validity about respecting the yield curve, but as an indicator, it might not be the most reliable.

My understanding of the yield curve

The yield curve shows the prevailing interest yield for different duration of the countries government debts.

For debts a longer tenure debt has more risk, because they are subjected to interest rate fluctuations, credit events, inflation, economic factors. Thus, when risks are higher, the interest rate investors demand should be higher.

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Is Investing In Growth Always A Good Thing? (Guest Post)

Is Investing In Growth Always A Good Thing? (Guest Post)

This post was originally posted here. The writer is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as 3Fs.

When investors like us invest in the stock market, the goal is always trying to grow our wealth over time.

Image result for coin stack

Investors are generally thrilled by the prospect of growth in general, whether they are referring to their income, savings or even the companies that they invest in.

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Another Student Visit from NUS!

Another Student Visit from NUS!

Today, we had another opportunity to share our startup company’s values, business model and our team to a group of Chinese exchange students from NUS!

NUS InvestingNote

NUS InvestingNote

These are the students who are currently pursuing a computing degree. We’re very fortunate and privileged to have them visit our company!

The previous time was back in August, where we hosted students from different universities!

We love to share our experiences, our startup working culture and meeting bright students. Like what Jack Ma once said: “Help young people. Help small guys. Because small guys will be big. Young people will have the seeds you bury in their minds, and when they grow up, they will change the world.” 

Thank you NUS for your continuous support of our company and believing in what we do!

Become a part of our community and also see what other investors are saying about the current market right now: (click on the view now button)

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3 Amazing Growth Stocks Flying Under The Radar (Guest Post)

3 Amazing Growth Stocks Flying Under The Radar (Guest Post)

This post was originally posted here. The writer is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as SmallCapAsia.

 

With a higher than average tolerance for risk, I’m a big fan of growth shares and you’ll find a number in my portfolio.

I’m looking at adding a couple more to my portfolio in the near future and three that I’m considering are listed below.

#1 United Global Limited (SGX: 43P)

United Global Limited is an independent lubricant manufacturer and trader providing a wide range of high quality and well-engineered lubricants.

The company produce their own in-house lubricant brands such as “United Oil”, “U Star Lube”, “Bell 1”, “HydroPure” and “Ichiro” as well as manufacturing lubricants for third-party principals’ brands.

United Global Limited serves clients mainly from the automotive, industrial, and marine industries. To date, the company has a wide distribution network covering over 30 countries.

Source: United Global Limited Annual Report 2017

United Global Limited revenue has been moving in sideways in the past 5 years. Despite that, its bottom line growth has delivered spectacular results. From FY2013 to FY2017, the company’s revenue was hovering around USD 100 million.

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Top Ten Attributes of Great Fundamental Investors

Top Ten Attributes of Great Fundamental Investors

The Top Ten Attributes of Great Fundamental Investors by Michael J. Mauboussin.

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The following is an excerpt of the full report:

“Perhaps the single greatest error in the investment business is a failure to distinguish between the knowledge of a company’s fundamentals and the expectations implied by the market price.”

The world of investing and business has seen a great deal of change in the past 30 years.

This report shares thoughts on the ten attributes of great fundamental investors. Accounting is the language of business and you need to understand it to appreciate economic value and to assess competitive positioning. Investors face a slew of psychological challenges.

Perhaps the most difficult is updating beliefs when new information arrives. Position sizing and portfolio construction still do not get the attention they warrant. The substantial shift from active to passive management has profound implications for the investment industry.

I started on Wall Street 30 years ago today…”

Read the full report [PDF] here.

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Download our free app here:

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