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Some Info I Looked into on Elite Commercial REIT (Guest Post)

Some Info I Looked into on Elite Commercial REIT (Guest Post)

Elite Commercial REIT has all the right metrics you would look for in a worthy Reit to invest in. Great looking yield, long wale, low debt to asset, freehold property and a tenant that looks like someone who you expect to be the last to default on their rent.

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Kyith is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as Kyith and 800+ followers.

elite-commercial

Sometimes it is either I overthink things or that I am absolutely right to be a little more skeptical.

Private equity firm Elite Partners is looking to IPO Elite Commercial Reit. A lot of the context for how to look at this REIT is shaped by the people associated with supporting this REIT.

My mode is wary for two reasons:

  1. The guys working on these deals try to sense the market and priced it accordingly. At this point (23 Jan), we don’t even have a sensing what is the range of yield we will get. It feels to me they are trying to gauge interest from the larger investors to see how to price this. If this REIT has high-quality assets yet the IPO prices the REIT at a high yield, either the banks advising and the people themselves have a lack of confidence or that there is something we don’t know about this portfolio
  2. The people behind it

That said, it doesn’t mean I am always right in the short term.

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Why Reits Are Likely To Stay At The Top For Longer Than Most People Would Expect (Guest Post)

Why Reits Are Likely To Stay At The Top For Longer Than Most People Would Expect (Guest Post)

The real estate industry cycle has been around for many years.

Related image

Traditionally, it has several built-in advantages that make it natural for property owners to receive rental income while awaiting for their property to appreciate in value over time. This is due to the higher affluent population group and the higher GDP for the nation as well as decent inflation rise that will all but contribute to an eventual higher property price.

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Brian Halim is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as 3Fs and 1800+ followers.

While traditional real estate usually requires high amount of funds to start with and is out of reach by many retail investors, Reits on the other hand are not. They are investment vehicles that is structured to exhibit the same attributes as traditional real estate but more importantly it allows retail investors like you and me with minimal funds to invest in them.

When investors like us buy Reits, the properties owned are generally incorporating a steady income and cashflow predictability into our income-oriented portfolio. Because of this, most of the returns we are getting should be in the form of the dividends that are being paid out. Capital appreciation is a secondary bonus factor, if any due to the nature that they have to pay out more than 90% of their cashflow income as dividends, leaving only a small amount of retained cashflow for any growth opportunities.

How Managers Are Optimizing Their Cost of Capital

Since a REIT is always raising money to grow, its cost of that capital is one of the most important things to help determine a REIT’s long-term investment potential.

There are three sources of capital: undistributed cash flow, equity, and debt.

The cost of capital is the weighted average of all three sources of capital. Undistributed or retained cash flow is by design (and tax law) the smallest but cheapest (free) source of capital.

The next cheapest is debt,measured by the total interest expense it pays out of the total debt, especially in today’s low interest rate environment.

The most expensive source of capital is equity. This makes sense intuitively because each additional share sold is a future claim on a REIT’s cash flow and increases the dividend cost.

Reits Are No Longer Just An Income Play

Gone are the days that Reits are just an income play.

Kep DC Reit – Effective Debt Structure & Accretive Acquisitions


MLT – Exponential Rise To The Top

Thanks to the sluggish global economy that encourages lower funds rate and cheap borrowings, managers are looking to tap into the credit liquidity to leverage their portfolio in this era of lower borrowings.

They would tap for as much leverage the company could take before considering for more access to funds via the equity route.

That is because the cost of equity is usually more expensive than the cost of debt and it would make more sense for them to consider debt first then equity as their main cost of capital to structure the most effective leverage for growth opportunities.

To the managers, they would look for pipeline opportunities and maintain a cost of capital that is lower than the cash yield on new acquisitions in order for AFFO and dividend to grow sustainably over time.

REIT’s leverage ratio, measured by key metrics Debt/Asset or Debt/EBITDA, is important because this is one of the major factor that credit rating agencies use to determine how risky a REIT’s profile is. A lower credit rating increases a Reit’s cost of debt capital, which could spiral into lower return on investment for any growth opportunities.

So REITS can grow over time and quickly for as long as they find good opportunities aided by cheap cost of borrowings and a rising share price, which compresses the cost of equity lower when they are issuing shares for funding.

Conclusion

Investors are generally afraid that they will be diluted when REITS increase their share counts over time so this leads to active participation from investors who will but contribute to this gracious cycle that will allow more funds for management to grow and seek accretive acquisition that will allow the cash yield from acquisition to be higher than the cost of capital on the equity.

Growing cash flow and a well diversified portfolio would then lead to a rising share price and capital appreciation for the investors.

In fact, the likely they remain at the top, the easier it is for management to look for external opportunities because the growth play is likely to remain a big part for a rising capital opportunities.

The only likely swan that could break this cycle is a liquidity crunch as well as a black swan event which eventually leads to a credit crunch which typically leads to increase in the cost of capital. But by then, REITS are not alone. All of the companies in all sectors around the world are likely to be impacted as well.

Thanks for reading.

Once again, this article is a guest post and was originally posted on Brians profile on InvestingNote. 

Also, we recently did an interview with Brian, to understand how he invested and traded during the SG Active Trading Tournament here.

Become a part of our community and also see what other investors are saying about the current market right now: (click on the view now button)

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Essential Stock Market And Investing Wisdoms For Every Investor In 2020 (guest post)

Essential Stock Market And Investing Wisdoms For Every Investor In 2020 (guest post)

If you think Stock Investing is hard, you are right.

If you think Stock Investing is easy, you are also right.

Over time, different legends have emerged from the stock market and these are the wisdom shared that every investor needs to know by 2020.

This post was originally posted here. The writer is a veteran community member on InvestingNote, with username known as Spinning_Top and close to 500 followers.

keys-to-success

12 Market Wisdoms From Gerald Loeb:

1. The most important single factor in shaping security markets is public psychology.

2. To make money in the stock market you either have to be ahead of the crowd or very sure they are going in the same direction for some time to come.

3. Accepting losses is the most important single investment device to insure safety of capital.

4. The difference between the investor who year in and year out procures for himself a final net profit, and the one who is usually in the red, is not entirely a question of superior selection of stocks or superior timing. Rather, it is also a case of knowing how to capitalize successes and curtail failures.

5. One useful fact to remember is that the most important indications are made in the early stages of a broad market move. Nine times out of ten the leaders of an advance are the stocks that make new highs ahead of the averages.

6. There is a saying, “A picture is worth a thousand words.” One might paraphrase this by saying a profit is worth more than endless alibis or explanations. . . prices and trends are really the best and simplest “indicators” you can find.

7. Profits can be made safely only when the opportunity is available and not just because they happen to be desired or needed.

8. Willingness and ability to hold funds uninvested while awaiting real opportunities is a key to success in the battle for investment survival.

9. In addition to many other contributing factors of inflation or deflation, a very great factor is the psychological. The fact that people think prices are going to advance or decline very much contributes to their movement, and the very momentum of the trend itself tends to perpetuate itself.

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Why OCBC Q3FY19 Profit Results Might Fall Double-Digit Percentage YoY (Guest Post)

Why OCBC Q3FY19 Profit Results Might Fall Double-Digit Percentage YoY (Guest Post)

OCBC is scheduled to announced its results on the 5th Nov (Tuesday morning) before the start of market trading.

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Brian Halim is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as 3Fs and 1800+ followers.

UOB announced its Q3 results this morning which gives a big hint of what is to come for the other two banks.

The drop in NIM and increase in NPA is worst than expected, and if not for the loan growth segment in the Singapore that helps, it might look like a worsen Q3.

This is 5 reasons why I think OCBC Q3 FY19 profit results are going to fall double-digit in terms of percentage year on year.

1) Net Interest Margin Compressed QoQ and YoY

In FY18, OCBC’s Net Interest Income contributes 60% to their total revenue while Non-Interest Income contributes the rest of the other 40%, so we’ll approximately use that as a gauge.

Q2FY19 Net Interest Income came in at $1,588m while Q3FY18 Net Interest Income came in at $1,505m.

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Best. January. Ever.

Best. January. Ever.

January 2019 is making the -8.8% in 2018 feel like a distant memory.

January sign lettering

Since my last post, I’ve received some queries asking about my specific positions. With the CNY break around the corner, I’ve some time to put all this up. Some have asked me why I’m no longer putting up my extensive writeups on stuff that I’ve done DD on. Well, that’s cos I’m mostly working on global equities, particularly US ones, and I don’t think there’s much appetite for that here.

This post was originally posted here. The writer is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as ThumbTackInvestor, with more than 2,000+ followers.

And anyway, I did put up in fact:

11% Returns In A Single Day. Thank You Blue Orca Capital!

TTI: “I’m Sorry, It’s All Over Between Us. I’m Breaking Up With You”

OK, I can’t find the one on DIS right now, but I’m sure it’s somewhere around.

This post is specifically on the US portion of my portfolio, excluding the SG and the bond portions.

Since my last post (1st Post Of 2019.), things have gotten… even better. MUCH better.

I’d have taken a 22.11% return and ended 2019 right there and then. Yet, TTI’s US portfolio continued outperforming S&P and other index benchmarks massively.

 

As of end Jan 2019, the ROI shot up to 28.36%.

NAV rose from USD 441,055.43 to USD 550,988.57, and that’s after a withdrawal of USD 14,716.20 made.

Net quantum gain in Jan 2019 alone was thus USD 124,649.34.

The best 1 day return was on the 04th Jan 2019, when the portfolio gained 7.32% in a single day, while the worst was on the 03rd Jan 2019, when the portfolio fell 4.45% in a single day.

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S&P500 has slumped 13.7% in Dec, largest percentage fall since 1931! Has the bull market ended? (Guest Post)

S&P500 has slumped 13.7% in Dec, largest percentage fall since 1931! Has the bull market ended? (Guest Post)

This post was originally posted here. The writer is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as el15, with 200+ followers.

Image result for bull market

Dear all

After hitting an intra-day high of 2,941 on 21 Sep 2018, S&P500 has tumbled 17.9% or 525 points to close 2,416 on 21 Dec 2018. In fact, S&P500 has just logged the worst monthly performance in Dec since 1931! Dow has also fallen 3,535 points from the intraday high of 25,980 on 3 Dec 2018 and 4,507 points from the intraday high of 26,952 on 3 Oct 2018. What is happening? Is Armageddon coming?

Most things have not changed since 21 Sep, except for…

In Sep, when S&P500 hit 2,940, the usual concerns were also there, namely trade tensions; U.S. 10Y treasury yields above 3%; Brexit; concerns on Europe; peak in earnings growth in U.S. market; slowing global growth etc. Since then, nothing much has changed except that

a) Part of the yield curve has inverted

On 3 Dec 2018, the yield curve for U.S. 3Y note and U.S. 5Y note inverted. According to the chief economist of North America at The Conference Board, he wrote in an article posted on MarketWatch 10 Dec 2018 that from the time that the above yield curve inverts, a recession typically starts from nine to 69 months, with an average of 27 months (i.e. more than 2 years).

For the more closely watched indicator i.e. the spread between the 10-year note and the 2-year note, it is still positive and not inverted. Although the spread between the 10-year note and the 2-year note has been narrowing / flattening, some strategists have noted that a flat curve can last for years and the economy can still be strong. According to an article by BMO Capital Markets in June 2018, BMO found that the S&P 500 has appreciated an average 12.3% when the yield curve was flattening vis-à-vis a 7.9% gain amid a steepening yield curve for all periods since 1980. In addition, BMO found that the S&P 500 can still rise an average 14.3% during the later stages of flattening cycles (from 50 bps to 0 bps).

b) U.S. and China have agreed on a trade truce for 90 days

U.S. and China have agreed on a “cease fire of sorts” on trade for 90 days. Notwithstanding the arrest of Huawei’s CFO in Canada and other negative headline news, it seems that China and U.S are still making some progress on the trade front post the dinner between President Trump and President Xi (i.e. it seems relatively better now than in Sep on the trade front)

c) U.S. 10Y treasury yields have dropped from >3% to 2.79%

U.S. 10Y treasury yields have dropped from >3% in Sep 2018 to 2.79% on 21 Dec 2018. This seems to be a net positive for stocks as this may reduce long term borrowing costs and increases the appeal of equities vis-à-vis bonds.

Has the bull market ended?

Nasdaq has slipped into a bear market with the 3% drop on last Fri. Most readers will be wondering whether the 9 or 10 year bull market has ended.

According to most strategists, the equity bull market typically ends when some of the conditions happen. For simplicity, I only list three conditions below (i.e. the list is not exhaustive).

a) Inverted yield curve

As per above, the yield curve is flattening but has not inverted yet. According to Blackstone, they do not believe that the yield curve is going to invert soon.

b) Negative earnings growth

It is common knowledge that 2018 likely marks the peak in earnings growth for U.S. corporates. However, it is noteworthy that a peak in earnings growth in 2018 does not necessarily mean a decline in earnings in 2019. For CY 2019, based on Factset, analysts estimate earnings growth of 8.3% and revenue growth of 5.5%.

Chart 1: Earnings and revenue growth in 2019

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Sunpower (5GD): Gathering steam | Current: $0.30 | Target: $0.45 | Upside: +50% (Guest Post)

Sunpower (5GD): Gathering steam | Current: $0.30 | Target: $0.45 | Upside: +50% (Guest Post)

This post was originally posted here. The writer is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as KennyChia, with 200+ followers.

Introduction

The recent 40+% sell-down of Sunpower caught my attention as it has always been on my watchlist due to its strategic positioning in the “Green” China economy. Upon further research, it seems that the event-driven selldown had nothing to do with the fundamentals of the company, which in fact were improving (increasing order book size, earnings, and operating cash flows). In order to keep this post brief, I have attached useful sources below that goes into detail the long-term investment merits of Sunpower as well as the recent events that transpired.

The Event – America 2030 Capital

In summary, Guo Hongxin (Founder & Executive Chairman) and Ma Ming (Executive Director), made personal loans by collateralizing their Sunpower shares (approx 1.89% of Sunpower’s total issued shares). The lender is America 2030 Capital. However, the collateral was allegedly forfeited as they had breached terms in the loan contract (this is currently being disputed between borrower and lender). Hence, America 2030 Capital took control of the collateralized Sunpower shares and supposedly sold in the open market, which caused the sell down.

Guo and Ma then obtained an interim injunction to prevent America 2030 “from selling or otherwise dealing in company shares which were used as collateral for personal loans”. They also “lodged a report with the Commercial Affairs Department of the Singapore Police Force over the loan agreement with America 2030”.

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2018 XIRR Performance & Networth Updates (Guest Post)

2018 XIRR Performance & Networth Updates (Guest Post)

This post was originally posted here. The writer is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as 3Fs, with more than 1,000+ followers.

Time really flies these days when we are in our mid 30s, pegged by a combination of busy work and heavy loads of watching our children grow as each year past by.

I wanted to wrap things up for the year given that I will be taking a holiday trip to Bali with my family for the next few days until Christmas, and wanted to do a reflection of my equity performance this year before I then wrap things up for 2018 on an overall scale.

I received some good feedbacks last year on how I presented with my performance review, especially clearly positioning my winners and losers so I thought I’d continued with the same format for this year.

Please bear with me as this will be a pretty long post.

Overall Market Thoughts

This was a tough and rough year for investors because this was supposed to be an expansion year where interest rates are going higher because the economy is improving and there wasn’t a clear sign of global slowdown in the economy yet the market experienced some of the highest volatility we’ve seen in many years due to the trade wars and other stuff.

All major indexes including the DJI, S&P, Nasdaq, HKEX, Nikkei, DAX were all down for the year and STI was not spared either.

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The Feared Inverted Yield Curve is Often Useless (Guest Post)

The Feared Inverted Yield Curve is Often Useless (Guest Post)

This post was originally posted here. The writer is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as kyith.

Yesterday, I posted the latest yield that you can get if you purchase the Singapore Savings Bonds.

And a few readers main comment is that the yield curve is inverting and we should be careful.

As you can see from the 1 year and 10 year SGS bond yield, the yields look to be narrowing.

And if the yield inverts, it is a really bad thing.

I think there is validity about respecting the yield curve, but as an indicator, it might not be the most reliable.

My understanding of the yield curve

The yield curve shows the prevailing interest yield for different duration of the countries government debts.

For debts a longer tenure debt has more risk, because they are subjected to interest rate fluctuations, credit events, inflation, economic factors. Thus, when risks are higher, the interest rate investors demand should be higher.

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3 Amazing Growth Stocks Flying Under The Radar (Guest Post)

3 Amazing Growth Stocks Flying Under The Radar (Guest Post)

This post was originally posted here. The writer is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as SmallCapAsia.

 

With a higher than average tolerance for risk, I’m a big fan of growth shares and you’ll find a number in my portfolio.

I’m looking at adding a couple more to my portfolio in the near future and three that I’m considering are listed below.

#1 United Global Limited (SGX: 43P)

United Global Limited is an independent lubricant manufacturer and trader providing a wide range of high quality and well-engineered lubricants.

The company produce their own in-house lubricant brands such as “United Oil”, “U Star Lube”, “Bell 1”, “HydroPure” and “Ichiro” as well as manufacturing lubricants for third-party principals’ brands.

United Global Limited serves clients mainly from the automotive, industrial, and marine industries. To date, the company has a wide distribution network covering over 30 countries.

Source: United Global Limited Annual Report 2017

United Global Limited revenue has been moving in sideways in the past 5 years. Despite that, its bottom line growth has delivered spectacular results. From FY2013 to FY2017, the company’s revenue was hovering around USD 100 million.

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