Browsed by
Tag: guestpost

Why Reits Are Likely To Stay At The Top For Longer Than Most People Would Expect (Guest Post)

Why Reits Are Likely To Stay At The Top For Longer Than Most People Would Expect (Guest Post)

The real estate industry cycle has been around for many years.

Related image

Traditionally, it has several built-in advantages that make it natural for property owners to receive rental income while awaiting for their property to appreciate in value over time. This is due to the higher affluent population group and the higher GDP for the nation as well as decent inflation rise that will all but contribute to an eventual higher property price.

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Brian Halim is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as 3Fs and 1800+ followers.

While traditional real estate usually requires high amount of funds to start with and is out of reach by many retail investors, Reits on the other hand are not. They are investment vehicles that is structured to exhibit the same attributes as traditional real estate but more importantly it allows retail investors like you and me with minimal funds to invest in them.

When investors like us buy Reits, the properties owned are generally incorporating a steady income and cashflow predictability into our income-oriented portfolio. Because of this, most of the returns we are getting should be in the form of the dividends that are being paid out. Capital appreciation is a secondary bonus factor, if any due to the nature that they have to pay out more than 90% of their cashflow income as dividends, leaving only a small amount of retained cashflow for any growth opportunities.

How Managers Are Optimizing Their Cost of Capital

Since a REIT is always raising money to grow, its cost of that capital is one of the most important things to help determine a REIT’s long-term investment potential.

There are three sources of capital: undistributed cash flow, equity, and debt.

The cost of capital is the weighted average of all three sources of capital. Undistributed or retained cash flow is by design (and tax law) the smallest but cheapest (free) source of capital.

The next cheapest is debt,measured by the total interest expense it pays out of the total debt, especially in today’s low interest rate environment.

The most expensive source of capital is equity. This makes sense intuitively because each additional share sold is a future claim on a REIT’s cash flow and increases the dividend cost.

Reits Are No Longer Just An Income Play

Gone are the days that Reits are just an income play.

Kep DC Reit – Effective Debt Structure & Accretive Acquisitions


MLT – Exponential Rise To The Top

Thanks to the sluggish global economy that encourages lower funds rate and cheap borrowings, managers are looking to tap into the credit liquidity to leverage their portfolio in this era of lower borrowings.

They would tap for as much leverage the company could take before considering for more access to funds via the equity route.

That is because the cost of equity is usually more expensive than the cost of debt and it would make more sense for them to consider debt first then equity as their main cost of capital to structure the most effective leverage for growth opportunities.

To the managers, they would look for pipeline opportunities and maintain a cost of capital that is lower than the cash yield on new acquisitions in order for AFFO and dividend to grow sustainably over time.

REIT’s leverage ratio, measured by key metrics Debt/Asset or Debt/EBITDA, is important because this is one of the major factor that credit rating agencies use to determine how risky a REIT’s profile is. A lower credit rating increases a Reit’s cost of debt capital, which could spiral into lower return on investment for any growth opportunities.

So REITS can grow over time and quickly for as long as they find good opportunities aided by cheap cost of borrowings and a rising share price, which compresses the cost of equity lower when they are issuing shares for funding.

Conclusion

Investors are generally afraid that they will be diluted when REITS increase their share counts over time so this leads to active participation from investors who will but contribute to this gracious cycle that will allow more funds for management to grow and seek accretive acquisition that will allow the cash yield from acquisition to be higher than the cost of capital on the equity.

Growing cash flow and a well diversified portfolio would then lead to a rising share price and capital appreciation for the investors.

In fact, the likely they remain at the top, the easier it is for management to look for external opportunities because the growth play is likely to remain a big part for a rising capital opportunities.

The only likely swan that could break this cycle is a liquidity crunch as well as a black swan event which eventually leads to a credit crunch which typically leads to increase in the cost of capital. But by then, REITS are not alone. All of the companies in all sectors around the world are likely to be impacted as well.

Thanks for reading.

Once again, this article is a guest post and was originally posted on Brians profile on InvestingNote. 

Also, we recently did an interview with Brian, to understand how he invested and traded during the SG Active Trading Tournament here.

Become a part of our community and also see what other investors are saying about the current market right now: (click on the view now button)

button_view-now


InvestingNote is the first and largest social network for investors in Singapore. Find out more about us here.

Download our free app here:

apple   android

New Oriental Education – This Company Grows at 138% In The Past 12 Months (Guest Post)

New Oriental Education – This Company Grows at 138% In The Past 12 Months (Guest Post)

This is a company that has returned 138% in the last 12 months for investors as the company is looking to grow even more in the next few years which spells opportunities if you are looking into a growth play.

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Brian Halim is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as 3Fs and 1800+ followers.

The company last closed at it’s historical high at $122.72 and it is continuing to grow at a very fast double digit topline growth in the next few years.

Company Overview

Founded in 1993, New Oriental Education & Tech Group (NYSE: EDU) is the largest provider of private educational services in China. The company has an extensive network of over 1,261 learning centres that span across 56 different cities. New Oriental was the first successful Chinese educational institution to be listed in the New York Stock Exchange through their public offering back in 2016 and it has a market capitalization of over USD14 billion today.

The company has a substantial presence in Beijing, Shanghai and Wuhan, where combined they have a total presence of 245 learning centres, or close to 20% of their entire portfolio.

Beijing: Beijing has one of the fastest growing population in China, as the number of people living in the city grew from 13.5m in 2000 to 20.1m in 2019 (source: worldpopulationreview). In terms of GDP per capita, Beijing has also outperformed the rest of the cities by growing at more than 8% per annum, despite the ongoing Trade Wars threatening the slowdown of their growing nation.

Shanghai: Shanghai currently ranks first in terms of population density as the modern revolutionized city appeals to International expats and locals to come to Shanghai for both work and live. It currently houses a population of about 26m but has the infrastructure capacity to double its living population in the city to 50m by 2050 (source: shine.cn) through their urbanization transformation in the region and strong economic growth.

Wuhan: Wuhan is a surprise inclusion because of its strong economic growth and infrastructure transformation over the years, the city has recorded one of the highest rate of historic population growth over the years (source: wiki-wuhan). To date, their population stands at about 10.6m, which is about half the population size of Beijing.

Financial Performance

Revenue has increased by 26.5% year on year from $2.4m in FY2018 to $3.1m in FY2019 and has grown at a CAGR of 19.8% over 5 years.

This is mainly due to both the organic aspect of growth (152 new facilities and learning centres added in FY2019) as well as inorganic growth through the successful implementation of the optimization strategy coming in from the K-12 After-School Tutoring division and U-Can Middle School, which grow by 28.5% and 27.2% respectively.

Gross Profit margins continued to remain resilient at 55.5% in FY2019, despite coming in slightly lower than the 5-year average of 57.3%.

As the company seek to embark on its expansion plan, the company has correspondingly incurred higher costs for marketing and other SG&A related costs such as salary and rent as there are higher headcounts to account for.

Read More Read More

ISOTeam trades near 4 year low despite record order books and bright outlook (10 Jan 19) (Guest Post)

ISOTeam trades near 4 year low despite record order books and bright outlook (10 Jan 19) (Guest Post)

ISOTeam (“ISO”) caught my attention. Despite sitting on a record order book, ISO has tumbled approximately 44% from an intra-day high of $0.385 on 10 Apr 2018 to close near a four year low at around $0.215 on 10 Jan 2019. The share price decline was attributable in part to its 4QFY18 surprise loss announced in Aug 2018 (financial year ends in Jun). Nevertheless, my gut feel is that 4QFY18 should mark the trough in earnings and results should improve on a quarter on quarter basis in the next few quarters.

Image result for isoteam

This post was originally posted here. The writer is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as el15, with more than 200+ followers.

As this company is a potential turnaround play, I have arranged a 1-1 meeting with Mr Anthony Koh, Executive Director and Chief Executive Officer and Mr Richard Chan, General Manager (collectively, “Management”) last month. First, a description of ISO…

Description of ISO

ISO has grown from a company doing repairs and redecoration (“R&R”) & addition and alteration (“A&A”) projects in 2014 (when I first met them) to a multi-disciplinary company which provides complete solutions to the built environment. See Figure 1 below for its business segments.

Fig 1: ISO complete solutions provider

Source: Company

Key takeaways from the meet-up

1.4QFY18 loss was due to several factors, some of which are unlikely to be repeated

ISO reported a 4QFY18 net loss of S$2.0m in Aug 2018. Overall, FY18 net profit dropped 71% from S$6.4m in FY17 to S$1.9m in FY18. This drop was mainly attributable to the following factors, some of which are likely to be one off:

Read More Read More

Don’t make the same mistake that I made 2 decades ago (Guest Post)

Don’t make the same mistake that I made 2 decades ago (Guest Post)

For the calendar year 2018, the Straits Times Index (STI) retreated from 3400.91 at the close of Year 2017 to 3068.76 at the close of Year 2018. The absolute fall for the calendar year 2018 was more than 10%. It had defied the predictions of many analysts.

Many of them were generally bullish at the beginning of Year 2018. By today, on the 1st day of trading for Year 2019, it retreated another nearly 30 points, -29.87 (to be exact). Surely, many players have been slowly but surely cashed out of the market as the market retreated. Even those with cash to spare were not willing to get into the market. Just as we know in economics, there were more sellers than buyers for year 2018. That, precisely, was the reason for the market to fall.

This post was originally posted here. The writer is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as BrennenPak, with more than 3,000+ followers.

d

With each market fall, it flushes out some players. The unfortunate thing is market retreats and advances are never linear with time. They are never exactly predictable, especially over a longer of period of 6 months and longer. Market volatilities are due to the changing political, economic and social conditions that are thrown out into the market from time to time. Frankly who is able to predict what an influential political figure will say or act next week or next month or next year. Most of the rise and falls were due to some smart Alex out there trying to anticipate the moves of these people before things really happen. Unfortunately, time and again, it almost always sucks in new players and throw out some others as the market rise and falls in a falling trend. Many players, who were unable to take the market gyrations would have cashed out of the market, and stayed in cash in hope to fight for another day.

Let me say this. Market gyrations are not an easy thing to stomach, especially for those who are very watchful of the market movements. In fact, many are willing to take losses and leave the market instead of riding through the market ups and downs as sentiments get hazy. Along with the falling market, I am quite sure a number of us have this floating thought “I would rather take a small return of even 1-2% to protect my capital than to see my capital dwindling with time.” That precisely became the guiding principle that drives their action. So, instead of staying liquid after cashing out, they choose to put the money into more certain investments. They gladly put their money in longer term plans, such as fixed deposits and Singapore government bonds and even insurance plans that can only yield rewards (if there really are any), at least, 1, 2 years or even a few years down the road. I mention this because I happened to see some posts in social media lately. Some people seemed to have decided to take this course of action. Frankly, this was exactly the mistake that I made 20 years ago.

Read More Read More

CityDevelopment (CDL) – Is There Value In This Company At $8.08? (Guest Post)

CityDevelopment (CDL) – Is There Value In This Company At $8.08? (Guest Post)

The revised cooling measures implemented in the middle of 2018 has finally pushed Q418 sales to a dip since Q217. It was only slightly down by 0.1% quarter on quarter and most of the decline was mainly due to landed sales so in all essence the demand for private property is still pretty buoyant.

With the introduction of the new cooling measures, which coincides along with the increase in tandem in interest rates, it brings the share price of City Development (CDL) down from the 52 week high of $13.6 to the last closing price of $8.08. (Jan 4th 2019)

Image result for city development limited

This post was originally posted here. The writer is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as 3Fs, with more than 1,300+ followers.

That is a very sharp decline and if you are an investor who buys at the peak and it can get very painful to see your portfolio colored in a patriotic sea of red.

But is there value now in the company after such a steep decline?

Cooling Measures In This Decade

For years since post gfc days when the first cooling measures was introduced in 2011, the demand for private property and residential has been pretty stable and moving. It never for once dent the expectations of the public that property prices are going to come down because of the measures put in place.

Read More Read More

S&P500 has slumped 13.7% in Dec, largest percentage fall since 1931! Has the bull market ended? (Guest Post)

S&P500 has slumped 13.7% in Dec, largest percentage fall since 1931! Has the bull market ended? (Guest Post)

This post was originally posted here. The writer is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as el15, with 200+ followers.

Image result for bull market

Dear all

After hitting an intra-day high of 2,941 on 21 Sep 2018, S&P500 has tumbled 17.9% or 525 points to close 2,416 on 21 Dec 2018. In fact, S&P500 has just logged the worst monthly performance in Dec since 1931! Dow has also fallen 3,535 points from the intraday high of 25,980 on 3 Dec 2018 and 4,507 points from the intraday high of 26,952 on 3 Oct 2018. What is happening? Is Armageddon coming?

Most things have not changed since 21 Sep, except for…

In Sep, when S&P500 hit 2,940, the usual concerns were also there, namely trade tensions; U.S. 10Y treasury yields above 3%; Brexit; concerns on Europe; peak in earnings growth in U.S. market; slowing global growth etc. Since then, nothing much has changed except that

a) Part of the yield curve has inverted

On 3 Dec 2018, the yield curve for U.S. 3Y note and U.S. 5Y note inverted. According to the chief economist of North America at The Conference Board, he wrote in an article posted on MarketWatch 10 Dec 2018 that from the time that the above yield curve inverts, a recession typically starts from nine to 69 months, with an average of 27 months (i.e. more than 2 years).

For the more closely watched indicator i.e. the spread between the 10-year note and the 2-year note, it is still positive and not inverted. Although the spread between the 10-year note and the 2-year note has been narrowing / flattening, some strategists have noted that a flat curve can last for years and the economy can still be strong. According to an article by BMO Capital Markets in June 2018, BMO found that the S&P 500 has appreciated an average 12.3% when the yield curve was flattening vis-à-vis a 7.9% gain amid a steepening yield curve for all periods since 1980. In addition, BMO found that the S&P 500 can still rise an average 14.3% during the later stages of flattening cycles (from 50 bps to 0 bps).

b) U.S. and China have agreed on a trade truce for 90 days

U.S. and China have agreed on a “cease fire of sorts” on trade for 90 days. Notwithstanding the arrest of Huawei’s CFO in Canada and other negative headline news, it seems that China and U.S are still making some progress on the trade front post the dinner between President Trump and President Xi (i.e. it seems relatively better now than in Sep on the trade front)

c) U.S. 10Y treasury yields have dropped from >3% to 2.79%

U.S. 10Y treasury yields have dropped from >3% in Sep 2018 to 2.79% on 21 Dec 2018. This seems to be a net positive for stocks as this may reduce long term borrowing costs and increases the appeal of equities vis-à-vis bonds.

Has the bull market ended?

Nasdaq has slipped into a bear market with the 3% drop on last Fri. Most readers will be wondering whether the 9 or 10 year bull market has ended.

According to most strategists, the equity bull market typically ends when some of the conditions happen. For simplicity, I only list three conditions below (i.e. the list is not exhaustive).

a) Inverted yield curve

As per above, the yield curve is flattening but has not inverted yet. According to Blackstone, they do not believe that the yield curve is going to invert soon.

b) Negative earnings growth

It is common knowledge that 2018 likely marks the peak in earnings growth for U.S. corporates. However, it is noteworthy that a peak in earnings growth in 2018 does not necessarily mean a decline in earnings in 2019. For CY 2019, based on Factset, analysts estimate earnings growth of 8.3% and revenue growth of 5.5%.

Chart 1: Earnings and revenue growth in 2019

Read More Read More

Sunpower (5GD): Gathering steam | Current: $0.30 | Target: $0.45 | Upside: +50% (Guest Post)

Sunpower (5GD): Gathering steam | Current: $0.30 | Target: $0.45 | Upside: +50% (Guest Post)

This post was originally posted here. The writer is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as KennyChia, with 200+ followers.

Introduction

The recent 40+% sell-down of Sunpower caught my attention as it has always been on my watchlist due to its strategic positioning in the “Green” China economy. Upon further research, it seems that the event-driven selldown had nothing to do with the fundamentals of the company, which in fact were improving (increasing order book size, earnings, and operating cash flows). In order to keep this post brief, I have attached useful sources below that goes into detail the long-term investment merits of Sunpower as well as the recent events that transpired.

The Event – America 2030 Capital

In summary, Guo Hongxin (Founder & Executive Chairman) and Ma Ming (Executive Director), made personal loans by collateralizing their Sunpower shares (approx 1.89% of Sunpower’s total issued shares). The lender is America 2030 Capital. However, the collateral was allegedly forfeited as they had breached terms in the loan contract (this is currently being disputed between borrower and lender). Hence, America 2030 Capital took control of the collateralized Sunpower shares and supposedly sold in the open market, which caused the sell down.

Guo and Ma then obtained an interim injunction to prevent America 2030 “from selling or otherwise dealing in company shares which were used as collateral for personal loans”. They also “lodged a report with the Commercial Affairs Department of the Singapore Police Force over the loan agreement with America 2030”.

Read More Read More

2018 XIRR Performance & Networth Updates (Guest Post)

2018 XIRR Performance & Networth Updates (Guest Post)

This post was originally posted here. The writer is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as 3Fs, with more than 1,000+ followers.

Time really flies these days when we are in our mid 30s, pegged by a combination of busy work and heavy loads of watching our children grow as each year past by.

I wanted to wrap things up for the year given that I will be taking a holiday trip to Bali with my family for the next few days until Christmas, and wanted to do a reflection of my equity performance this year before I then wrap things up for 2018 on an overall scale.

I received some good feedbacks last year on how I presented with my performance review, especially clearly positioning my winners and losers so I thought I’d continued with the same format for this year.

Please bear with me as this will be a pretty long post.

Overall Market Thoughts

This was a tough and rough year for investors because this was supposed to be an expansion year where interest rates are going higher because the economy is improving and there wasn’t a clear sign of global slowdown in the economy yet the market experienced some of the highest volatility we’ve seen in many years due to the trade wars and other stuff.

All major indexes including the DJI, S&P, Nasdaq, HKEX, Nikkei, DAX were all down for the year and STI was not spared either.

Read More Read More

The Feared Inverted Yield Curve is Often Useless (Guest Post)

The Feared Inverted Yield Curve is Often Useless (Guest Post)

This post was originally posted here. The writer is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as kyith.

Yesterday, I posted the latest yield that you can get if you purchase the Singapore Savings Bonds.

And a few readers main comment is that the yield curve is inverting and we should be careful.

As you can see from the 1 year and 10 year SGS bond yield, the yields look to be narrowing.

And if the yield inverts, it is a really bad thing.

I think there is validity about respecting the yield curve, but as an indicator, it might not be the most reliable.

My understanding of the yield curve

The yield curve shows the prevailing interest yield for different duration of the countries government debts.

For debts a longer tenure debt has more risk, because they are subjected to interest rate fluctuations, credit events, inflation, economic factors. Thus, when risks are higher, the interest rate investors demand should be higher.

Read More Read More

3 Amazing Growth Stocks Flying Under The Radar (Guest Post)

3 Amazing Growth Stocks Flying Under The Radar (Guest Post)

This post was originally posted here. The writer is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as SmallCapAsia.

 

With a higher than average tolerance for risk, I’m a big fan of growth shares and you’ll find a number in my portfolio.

I’m looking at adding a couple more to my portfolio in the near future and three that I’m considering are listed below.

#1 United Global Limited (SGX: 43P)

United Global Limited is an independent lubricant manufacturer and trader providing a wide range of high quality and well-engineered lubricants.

The company produce their own in-house lubricant brands such as “United Oil”, “U Star Lube”, “Bell 1”, “HydroPure” and “Ichiro” as well as manufacturing lubricants for third-party principals’ brands.

United Global Limited serves clients mainly from the automotive, industrial, and marine industries. To date, the company has a wide distribution network covering over 30 countries.

Source: United Global Limited Annual Report 2017

United Global Limited revenue has been moving in sideways in the past 5 years. Despite that, its bottom line growth has delivered spectacular results. From FY2013 to FY2017, the company’s revenue was hovering around USD 100 million.

Read More Read More