Since the last post, the STI did indeed fell further forming a trough by early June. By this week, the STI regained some of its lost territory, landing at 3214.85.
Banks are still lagging as the fall out of the US-China trade war began to infiltrate into smaller economies. It is a situation that when giants fight, all the others feel the ripples. For the 1st quarter of 2019, the actual GDP growth of 1.2% fell short against the forecast of 1.9%. Economists are now downgrading Singapore’s yearly growth rate from 2.5% forecast in March 2019 to 2.1% for year 2019. Certainly, the banks stocks are not going to fare well when the state of the economy worsens. Just months ago, it was widely expected that the FED would continue to increase the interest rate well into 2020. This would help mop off the liquidity in the system, resulting in higher net interest margin (NIM) for the banks. Right now, more and more are expecting the FED to lower the interest rate in response to the slowdown due to the on-going trade war. This would inadvertently slacken the interest margin again. Banks, which have been increasing their deposit rates recently, in preparation for higher interest rates may find their efforts come to naught if they are not able to lend them out efficiently.