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ComfortDelGro sinks to 14-year low! Will it go lower? (19 Jan 2023)

ComfortDelGro sinks to 14-year low! Will it go lower? (19 Jan 2023)

On 11 Jan, Comfort (CD) closed at $1.21, the lowest close since 31 Oct 2008. The next day, to the horror of CD’s shareholders, it broke $1.21 with volume expansion and closed at $1.18. At the time of this write-up, CD closed today at $1.14, the lowest close last seen 29 Oct 2008.

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Ernest Lim is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with a username known as @el15 and has close to 550 followers.

‌Will CD fall more? Or will this be a comfortable trade at current level? Let’s read on for more.‌

Possible reasons to be bullish

A) Still a recovery play

CD with its operations in Australia, China, Singapore, UK etc. should gradually benefit as economies re-open. China’s abrupt easing of its Covid measures will likely facilitate more commuting and travelling in China and outside China.

‌Based on Bloomberg, the consensus from analysts is still projecting CD to post a year-on year (“y-o-y”) net profit growth of 30% in FY22F; 16% in FY23F; 7% in FY24F. Thus, suffice to say that CD is still a recovery play and is likely to post year on year profit growth. Much cannot be said for some companies as they may report a y-o-y drop in net profit in FY23F especially if their FY22F is an exceptional year.‌

B) Valuations are incredibly low; 2.0x standard deviations below its average 10Y P/BV

Based on Bloomberg, CD trades at 2.0x standard deviations below its average 10Y P/BV of 1.9x. With net profit expected to rise in FY22F, FY23F and FY24F (see point A above), it does not seem justifiable to trade at such depressed valuations.

C) Net cash $647m; easily can finance M&A & 5-6% dividend yields

Based on some of the analyst reports which I have read, CD’s balance sheet has emerged stronger after the pandemic. CD has net cash amounting to $647m in 3QFY22 vs $520m in 4QFY21. In other words, 26% of market cap is backed by net cash. Such strong balance sheet should be able to support its dividends and any acquisitions. Furthermore, generally speaking, in a rising interest rate environment, having net cash is better than being in debt.

D) 14-year low price since 29 Oct 2008

During the height of the pandemic, CD traded to a low of around $1.30 – 1.31. At that time, the economy and human traffic come to an almost standstill and plagued with uncertainties on how the pandemic will pan out. It is difficult to see how its operations can be worse now compared to the pandemic. Granted that analysts have cut their profit estimates for CD, the consensus net profit still expects CD to post a 30% rise in FY22F; 16% in FY23F; 8% in FY24F.

E) Total potential upside is around 43% if the consensus is right

Based on Bloomberg, average analyst target price is $1.56; FY23F estimated div yield is at 6.0%. If the consensus is right, CD presents a total potential return of around 43%.

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SGX drops for 12th consecutive day, longest losing streak since IPO! (20 Oct 22)

SGX drops for 12th consecutive day, longest losing streak since IPO! (20 Oct 22)

Since 4 Oct 2022, SGX has fallen for 12 consecutive sessions, logging its longest losing streak since IPO in 2000! Over the past 12 sessions, SGX has lost a total of 12.5%, or $1.19 to close at $8.33 on 20 Oct 2022. It is noteworthy that STI has only fallen 3.7% over the same period. In addition, SGX’s RSI closed 13.3, the lowest since 2008!

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Ernest Lim is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with a username known as @el15 and has close to 600 followers.

Some noteworthy points below

a) Average analyst target: $10.08

Based on Bloomberg (see Fig 1 below), average analyst target price is around $10.08. If consensus is right and assuming that analysts do not change their target prices, SGX offers a potential capital upside of around 21%. Coupled with an estimated dividend yield of around 3.9%, total potential return is around 25%.

For the eagle eye readers, you will have noticed that since 10 Oct, there have been mixed analyst calls. To some extent, the recent decline can be attributed to the recent sell calls on SGX with target prices ranging from $8.00 – 9.25.

Figure 1: Bloomberg compilation of analyst target prices for SGX

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A Look into DBS Group Holdings’ Q4 and FY2020 Results (Guest Post)

A Look into DBS Group Holdings’ Q4 and FY2020 Results (Guest Post)

DBS Group Holdings (SGX:D05) is the first of the three Singapore-listed banks to release its results for the fourth quarter, as well as for the financial year 2020 ended 31 December 2020 early this morning (10 February 2021) – the other two banks will be releasing its results on the final week of February (OCBC on 24th February, and UOB on 25 February – both before market hours.)

In my post today, let us take an in-depth look into DBS’ latest ‘report card’ – particularly its key financial results, key financial ratios, as well as its dividend payouts to shareholders, along with my personal opinions as a shareholder of Singapore’s biggest bank to share.

Image result for dbs

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Lim Jun Yuan is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with a username known as @ljunyuan and has close to 2,000 followers.

Key Financial Results (Q4 FY2019 vs. Q4 FY2020, and FY2019 vs. FY2020)

In this section, you will find the bank’s results on a quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) basis (i.e. Q4 FY2019 vs. Q4 FY2020), as well as on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis (i.e. FY2019 vs. FY2020):

Q4 FY2019 vs. Q4 FY2020:

Q4 FY2019 Q4 FY2020 % Variance
– Net Interest
Income (S$’mil)
$2,426m $2,120m -12.6%
– Net Fee & Commission
Income (S$’mil)
$741m $747m +0.8%
– Other Non-Interest
Income (S$’mil)
$294m $396m +34.7%
Total Income
(S$’mil)
$3,461m $3,263m -5.7%
Total Expenses
(S$’mil)
$1,600m $1,580m -1.3%
Net Profit
(S$’mil)
$1,508m $1,012m -32.9%

Total income (which consisted of 3 components: net interest income, net fee and commission income, as well as other non-interest income) fell 5.7% on a q-o-q basis to S$3,263m, as a decline in its net interest income (due to a 37 basis point q-o-q drop in its net interest margin to 1.49%), cushioned by an increase in its net fee and commission income (attributed by an improvement in its wealth management fees), as well as in its other non-interest income (as a result of an increase in its trading income.)

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How to Identify Trend Reversal in the Markets With Zero Indicators (Guest post)

How to Identify Trend Reversal in the Markets With Zero Indicators (Guest post)

Do you want to know how to identify trend reversal ahead of time, guaranteed?

Well, it doesn’t exist.

No trading system or methodology can.

However…

The closest thing you’ll get is to learn how to read the price action and identify potential areas where the market could reverse.

And this is what you’ll learn in today’s post:

Ready?

Then let’s begin…

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Rayner Teo is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with a username known as @Rayner and has 617 followers.

How to identify trend reversal — identify weakness in the trending move

First, let me define what a trending move is…

A trending move is the “stronger” leg of a trend and it trades in the same direction of it (that’s why I call it trending move).

The trending move (in a healthy uptrend) usually has more bullish than bearish candles; the bullish candles are relatively larger than the bearish ones, and the bullish candles closing near the highs

An example:


However:

When the bullish candles are getting smaller, it’s telling you the buying pressure is getting weak, or there is equal selling pressure coming in.

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A Summary of Mapletree Logistics Trust’s EGM on 23 November 2020 (guest post)

A Summary of Mapletree Logistics Trust’s EGM on 23 November 2020 (guest post)

Blue chip logistics REIT Mapletree Logistics Trust (SGX:M44U) held its extraordinary general meeting (EGM) yesterday afternoon to seek unitholders’ approval on the proposed acquisition of 22 properties in China, along with 1 property in Malaysia as well as in Vietnam. Approval was also sought for its proposed issue of new units of the REIT as partial consideration for its China acquisitions, and also for the proposed whitewash resolution.

 

An Analysis of Mapletree Logistics Trust

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Lim Jun Yuan is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with a username known as @ljunyuan and has 1442 followers.

Due to the safe distancing measures imposed by the Singapore government (due to the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic), the EGM was held in a hybrid mode – both online as well as offline (limited spaces available.) I have opted to attend the online version of the meeting as a unitholder and in this post, you’ll find a key summary of it, which I’ve compiled for the benefit of those who weren’t able to attend…

Presentation by Chief Executive Officer, Ms Ng Kiat

  • The following are details of the acquisition:
    • Acquisition of the remaining 50.0% stake in 15 warehouses in China, a 100.0% stake in 7 warehouses in China, 1 warehouse in Malaysia and also in Vietnam
  • Aggregate Agreed Property Value: S$1,509.2 million
  • Implied Net Property Income yield: ~5.2%
  • Net Lettable Area: 1,223,660 sqm
  • Committed occupancy rate: 94.7%
  • Weighted average lease expiry: 2.3 years
  • CEO of Mapletree Logistics Trust, Ms Ng Kiat, shared that the logistics industry have benefited from the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, where demand for Grade A warehouse space have increased as a result of an increase in adoption of e-commerce.
  • She explained that 3 geographical locations which the REIT will be acquiring properties in (China, Malaysia, and Vietnam) have seen their GDPs staying resilient despite the pandemic. Also, these countries are also projected to see a strong growth in their urban population in the years ahead (which will lead to an increase in demand for modern logistics space.) Coupled with the limited supply of Grade A warehouse space in the 3 countries, Ms Ng added that represents an opportunity for the REIT, being a leading provider of quality logistics space in Asia-Pacific, to come in and fill the market gap.
  • On top of that, Ms Ng also shared that the warehouses’ locations are strategically located near local consumption hubs in under an hour, which is an important consideration for tenants in e-commerce businesses. Not just that, post-acquisition, the REIT will see new top 10 tenants (by percentage of gross revenue) in JD.com… (which will contribute 2.4%) and Cainiao (which will contribute 2.1%.)

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Microsoft’s First Quarter 2021 Results Look Good (Guest post)

Microsoft’s First Quarter 2021 Results Look Good (Guest post)

Microsoft’s results seem good despite the pandemic.

Microsoft reports $36.9 billion in Q2 2020 revenue: Azure up 62%, Surface up 6%, and LinkedIn up 24% | VentureBeat

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Kyith Ng is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with a username known as @kyith and has 1097 followers.

US tech giant Microsoft announced their Q1 2021 results yesterday morning.

They achieve per-share profit growth of $1.82, beating analysts’ expectations of $1.54 a share.

The after-market share performance was muted. In fact, it’s nearly 1.5% lower. But due to the broad market fall this morning (28th Oct) the stock is down almost 5% to $203.

It has been consistently drilled into my head at work that the market is forward-looking in theory. And in a few practical cases, it is the case. After-market movements reflect the general crowd’s sentiments towards their expectations of future cash flows.

Microsoft’s results were not too bad in Q1 2021.

  • Revenue was $37.2 billion and increased 12%
  • Operating income was $15.9 billion and increased 25%
  • Net income was $13.9 billion and increased 30%
  • Diluted earnings per share was $1.82 and increased 32%

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How to Use Trailing Stop Loss: 5 Powerful Techniques That Work (Guest Post)

How to Use Trailing Stop Loss: 5 Powerful Techniques That Work (Guest Post)

What is a trailing stop loss?


This post was originally posted here. The writer, Rayner Teo is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with a username known as @Rayner and has 613 followers.

Have you ever wondered how professional traders ride big trends?

You know the type of trend that keeps going higher and your profit keeps snowballing — while you do nothing.

Well, the secret is this…

They use a trailing stop loss.

You’re thinking:

“It doesn’t work.”

“I’ve used it before but the market always hit my stop loss before it trends.”

That’s because:

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US Presidential Election 2020 – How It Affects Malaysia (Guest Post)

US Presidential Election 2020 – How It Affects Malaysia (Guest Post)

US Election is once every 4 years, but how does it impact the markets?
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This post was originally posted here. The contributor to this article,@Denise is one of our many community members on InvestingNote.

update: Joe Biden wins the Presidency with 290 seats🎊

In the meanwhile, it could still be a period of volatility as the markets wait for a smooth transition (if there even is). So even though it seems like the President of the US has alr been highly-likely decided, it should be noted that there are still various ways the US Election can be contested.

Nevertheless, here are some macroeconomics principles that you’d be keen to know of:

[After all, this won’t be the last Presidential Election because there will always be another one every 4 years. Hence, the same factors would still apply.]

Just a quick backdrop:

On August 31st, 1957, diplomatic relations between Malaysia and the US were established when the US elevated its Consulate General in Kuala Lumpur to the status of the Embassy.

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Key Highlights in United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Q3 & 9M FY2020 Business Update (Guest post)

Key Highlights in United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Q3 & 9M FY2020 Business Update (Guest post)

What are the key highlights of UOB’s latest results?

UOB launches 'high street' branch to target half a million emerging affluent customers in Singapore | IG EN
This post was originally posted here. The writer, Lim Jun Yuan is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with a username known as @ljunyuan and has 1433 followers.

United Overseas Bank (SGX:U11), or UOB, is the first of the three Singapore banks that have released its business updates for the third quarter and for the first 9 months of the financial year 2020 ended 30 September 2020 before market hours this morning (in case you’re wondering, the other 2 Singapore banks, DBS and OCBC, will be releasing its business updates for Q3 and 9M FY2020 tomorrow, 05 November 2020, before market hours.)

In my post today, I will be sharing with you key highlights from UOB’s latest business update you need to take note of…

Financial Performance (Q3 FY2019 vs. Q3 FY2020, and 9M FY2019 vs. 9M FY2020)

As the bank has switched to reporting its full financial statements on a half-yearly basis (i.e. in the second, as well as in the fourth quarter), it has only provided a summary this quarter.

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Does PayPal Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:PYPL) Make a Good Addition to Your Investment Portfolio? (GUEST POST)

Does PayPal Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:PYPL) Make a Good Addition to Your Investment Portfolio? (GUEST POST)

If you have been shopping online, then the name PayPal should sound familiar to you – as some of the merchants make use of the digital payment platform to accept payments from their customers.

PayPal completes GoPay acquisition, allowing the payments platform to enter China | TechCrunch

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Lim Jun Yuan is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as ljunyuan and has 1386  followers.

Before you continue reading today’s post, a disclaimer: I am currently invested in the company I am going to talk about today – PayPal Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:PYPL). But having said that, as always, rest assured I will be impartial in my analysis of the company.

I’m sure the name PayPal is not one that’s alien to you – especially to those of you who have shopped online before, you should have come across it when making payments, as some merchants make use of its digital payment platform to accept payments from their customers (for a small fee.)

From my understanding in its FY2019 annual report (for the financial year ended 31 December 2019), the company currently has 281 million customer active accounts and 24 million merchant active accounts across more than 200 markets worldwide. The company also owns Braintree (a company based in Chicago in the United States that specializes in mobile and web payment systems for e-commerce companies, which was acquired by PayPal in September 2013), Venmo (a mobile payment service that allows for the transfer of funds between its app users), and Xoom (a platform that facilitates the sending of money, paying of bills, and reloading of mobile phones from the United States and Canada to 131 countries worldwide; the company was acquired by PayPal in November 2015.)

Among the various means that PayPal Holdings Inc. generates its revenue from include:

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