Browsed by
Tag: economics

US Presidential Election 2020 – How It Affects Malaysia (Guest Post)

US Presidential Election 2020 – How It Affects Malaysia (Guest Post)

US Election is once every 4 years, but how does it impact the markets?
my

This post was originally posted here. The contributor to this article,@Denise is one of our many community members on InvestingNote.

update: Joe Biden wins the Presidency with 290 seats?

In the meanwhile, it could still be a period of volatility as the markets wait for a smooth transition (if there even is). So even though it seems like the President of the US has alr been highly-likely decided, it should be noted that there are still various ways the US Election can be contested.

Nevertheless, here are some macroeconomics principles that you’d be keen to know of:

[After all, this won’t be the last Presidential Election because there will always be another one every 4 years. Hence, the same factors would still apply.]

Just a quick backdrop:

On August 31st, 1957, diplomatic relations between Malaysia and the US were established when the US elevated its Consulate General in Kuala Lumpur to the status of the Embassy.

Read More Read More

Liquidity and Network Flywheel Causes Multiplier Effect On Business and Shares Valuation (Guest Post)

Liquidity and Network Flywheel Causes Multiplier Effect On Business and Shares Valuation (Guest Post)

The liquidity and Network Flywheel effect is key to unlock business growth and expansion.The Data Flywheel: How Enlightened Self-Interest Drives Data Network Effects

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Brian Halim is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with a username known as @3Fs and has 2259 followers.

One of the most important elements of a tech platform business model is the ability to create multiple expansion network effects, using the Network Flywheel concept.

A network effect is often described in economics and businesses as one of the key pillars of success as it depicts a contagion behavior of one additional usage of products or services that will have on the next users. This creates a long-lasting effect and an increasing value of a customer’s lifetime value, which is one of the key unit economic metrics for a business.

The Internet is clearly the easiest example of the network effect, where everything in our daily activities flows through the web channel.

Let’s take a look in more detail by using a private ride-hailing network, Grab as an example.

Grab started out as a ride-hailing platform where it aims to create a large pool network of supply and demand in each market so they can have what is called the network liquidity flywheel as depicted in the graph I created above.

Read More Read More

Why are Stock Markets rallying even as the virus situation persists?

Why are Stock Markets rallying even as the virus situation persists?

Have you been wondering why are Stock Markets rallying even as the virus situation persists?

What’s going to happen to the Markets, based on the current numbers & economic data?

This report will break down and help you:
✔ Why markets are rallying
✔ Business and stock market cycles, and the stage we’re currently at
✔ Which sectors will continue to outperform
✔ The investment roadmap backed by economic data and trading experience of more than 30 years
✔ and more!

james_promo-2
Get more information on the report here:

button_view-now

This report is written by Traders’ Dashboard. Get more detailed information about Traders Dashboard here.

*Note: all buyers of this report will also be given 2 weeks free trial (worth $15) to Traders’ Dashboard subscription here. Promo code will be PM-ed via InvestingNote notifications.


InvestingNote is the first and largest social network for investors in Singapore. Find out more about us here.

Download our free app here:

apple   android

Also, join our telegram channel here: t.me/investingnoteofficial

We’re here to keep you in touch with the latest investing & stock-related news, happenings and updates!

Special Market Report 2020

Special Market Report 2020

What’s next for the stock market in 3-6 months? [Special Report]

With several countries around the world in lockdowns in combined efforts to contain the COVID-19 virus, businesses from virtually all industries are affected.

However, the last few weeks, investors have been seeing a rebound and some countries like Germany and China are easing their lockdowns.

Meanwhile, in Singapore, we see daily surges in virus cases.

Are we in a recovery phase or is bad going to be worse?

Here’s a special report created by the team behind Traders Dashboard.

specialr

Although this report was originally published in February, it details the long-term implications of China’s policy changes on Singapore’s market during this critical coronavirus situation.

Get the Report here.


InvestingNote is the first and largest social network for investors in Singapore. Find out more about us here.

Download our free app here:

apple   android

Also, join our telegram channel here: t.me/investingnoteofficial

We’re here to keep you in touch with the latest investing & stock-related news, happenings and updates!

 

3 Key Points To Lookout For When Buying Stocks In A Recession (Guest Post)

3 Key Points To Lookout For When Buying Stocks In A Recession (Guest Post)

A recession is a significant decline in economic activity, lasting more than a few months. But many asked, when to buy stocks? How to better time a market entry in a recession? Well, here are 3 points to guide you along.

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Royston Tan is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as Royston_Tan and has 22 followers.

A Looming Recession? Look at Interest Rates - WSJ

For those looking to time a market entry, some data points on when might be a good time.

WHEN TO BUY STOCKS IN A RECESSION? THE IDEAL TIME TO PICK A BOTTOM

While I don’t recommend trying to time stock purchases with a crystal ball in front of you, especially during a bear market potentially as severe as the one we are currently facing, I will provide some reference point as to when might be the IDEAL time to PICK a bottom and start investing more aggressively in a recession.

This is not going to be from my GUT but instead using historical statistics to time entry. YES, I know that historical performance is never representative of the future trajectory of the stock market, especially one that is seemingly unprecedented as the current one.

Then again, having some maths behind you beats randomly pulling out some FORECAST based on your gut.

Before I disclose “my formula” on when to buy stocks in a recession, the question I like to ask is: Are we already in a recession? Seems to be a no-brainer question especially with more than half the world being on lockdown, right?

WHAT DEFINES A RECESSION?

A recession is a significant decline in economic activity, lasting more than a few months. There is a drop in the following 5 economic indicators:

  1. Real Gross domestic product (GDP)
  2. Income
  3. Employment
  4. Manufacturing
  5. Retail Sales

The current situation seems to tick all the boxes in this category.

A “simpler” definition for a recession is when the GDP growth rate is negative for two consecutive quarters or more. While it might seem simple, there might be some confusion. Should we be measuring GDP growth on a YoY basis (ie compare 1Q20 to 1Q19) or should we be measuring it based on QoQ (ie comparing 1Q20 to 4Q19).

The latter comparing on a QoQ basis is often being termed as a “Technical Recession” within the Singapore context (If you type technical recession in Google, most of the results are related to Singapore).

HOW DOES THE US CALCULATE GDP GROWTH?

In the US, the Bureau of Economic Analysis uses real GDP to measure the US GDP growth rate. Real GDP takes out the effect of inflation. GDP is calculated every quarter but is being annualized. The aim of annualizing is to remove the effect of seasons. If the BEA did not do this, there will always be a spike in the 4Q growth rate due to the holiday seasons.

The BEA provides a formula for calculating the US GDP growth rate which I will not detail much in this article.

IS THE US ALREADY IN A RECESSION?

NEW YORK CITY TIMELAPSE (EMPTY AMERICA) — fullinsight

Depending on which article you read, some might say that the US is already in a recession while others such as this Bloomberg Tracker (last updated March 11) which pegs the probability at “only” 53%, still the highest level since GFC. However, that tracker was done before the jobless claims blew up over the past 2 weeks, now more than 10m, so I reckon that probability ratio will probably be inched up significantly in the next update.

Given the COVID-19 scenario that we are facing, whether we choose to look at GDP growth from a YoY or QoQ basis, it is difficult to argue against the fact that US GDP growth will be negative in 1Q20 and 2Q20.

Even if the COVID-19 issue miraculously resolves itself today, the uncertainty surrounding a possible relapse will result in nations all over the world engaging a protectionist stance that will stymie the global economic recovery process.

My best guess, if I am to look into my crystal ball is that the peak of the COVID-19 issue for developed nations such as US, Italy and Spain will probably be sometime in late-April to early-May by which the focus will then turn to developing nations such as India and Indonesia where cases are just beginning to ramp up.

Developed nations will continue to shut off their borders to foreigners for fear of a relapse, just like what China is currently doing. The V-shape recovery which many people are hoping for is probably not going to happen in such a scenario.

HOW BAD IS THIS RECESSION GOING TO BE?

Read More Read More