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The Curious Case Of SIA’s Price Action After Ex-Rights (Guest post)

The Curious Case Of SIA’s Price Action After Ex-Rights (Guest post)

I am not sure if there are any fellow investors who find the price action of SIA (Singapore Airlines) pretty weird yesterday, the first day it went ex-rights. The stock actually appreciated more than 20+%!

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This post was originally posted here. The writer, Royston Tan is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as Royston_Tan.

SIA RIGHTS: THE CURIOUS CASE OF ITS PRICE ACTION

SIA went ex-rights today and there was some pretty weird action in its share price which I can’t seem to understand. I have previously written this article: SIA Rights Issue: Debunking the complication behind the Math. In that article, I tried to “simplify” the seemingly complicated SIA rights issue announcement and more importantly, look to calculate what might the trading price be for the Rights and the MCBs when they start trading on the bourse.

SIA’S VALUE WENT UP BY 26% OVERNIGHT?
SIA’s share price closed at S$5.91 yesterday. This morning, it went ex-rights. First I believe that the “Rights” here includes both the 1) Right Shares as well as 2) the Rights MCBs.

SIA previously calculated that the Theoretical ex-rights Price (TERP) was S$4.40/share based on the last traded price of S$6.50 before the announcement of the intended rights issue was made. This TERP only includes the Rights Share component, based on the issuance of approx 1.78bn shares.

I shown that the calculation of the TERP price was as such:

At S$6.50/share with 1.18bn of outstanding shares, the market cap of SIA is S$7.67bn.

With the issuance of 1.78bn rights shares, the total number of shares will increase to 2.96bn. Total amount of capital raised = 1.78bn * S$3.00 = S$5.34bn.

So post rights issuance market value of SIA = (existing market cap (S$7.67bn) + new cash raised (S$5.34bn)) / total number of new shares (2.96bn) = S$4.40/share.

Based on the last closing price of S$5.91 which indicates a market cap of S$6.97bn, the TERP should be (existing market cap(S$6.97bn) + new cash raised (S$5.34bn))/the total number of new shares (2.96bn) = S$4.16/share.

This morning, SIA’s share price open at S$4.20 which is around the calculated TERP. However, it traded up to as high as S$5.04 and as of this writing, it is at S$4.77.

The current price of S$4.77 is even higher than the TERP price of S$4.40 base on a pre-ex-rights price of S$6.50. The current S$4.77 price would indicate a pre-ex-rights price of S$7.44! WoW. Overnight, SIA’s price/share has increased from S$5.91 to S$7.44 which is an appreciation of 26%! What is going on here?

Seriously, I am not sure what the market is thinking at this moment pertaining to SIA. In the analysis above, I have also excluded the impact of the MCBs which should indicate a much lower TERP of S$4.16/share. Granted that these MCBs are not convertible to shares immediately. I have previously calculated that the ex-right price after all the conversions would have been in the arena of S$3.71/share based on the last closing price of S$5.91.

What is going to happen if the share price of SIA stays at S$4.77 when the rights are converted to shares (on the 8 June)?

Let’s assume that an investor bought 1000 shares of SIA yesterday at S$5.91/share. The total outlay will be S$5,910 (excluding comms etc). For 1000 shares, he will be entitled to 1,500 right shares. He can exercise the rights, paying S$3/rights, and convert them into actual shares.

His total outlay will be S$10,410 (S$5,910 + S$4,500) and he is now the proud owner of 2,500 SIA shares. At S$4.77/share, that will equate to a market value of S$11,925 which is a quick profit of S$1,515. In addition, he will still have 2,950 Rights MCB which should be worth some value when they are tradeable.

I last calculated that value to be approx S$0.37/Rights MCB. 2,950 of them will equate to another S$1,091 in value. Total profit could be a hefty S$2,606 based on an outlay of S$10,410 or a quick turnaround of 25%! Even if I am wrong in the calculation of the Rights MCB value, it cannot be negative.

Hence an investor who bought SIA shares at S$5.91/share before the ex-right date (which is May 6) will be able to pocket at least S$1,515/share if the share price remains at S$4.77/share when his rights are converted to shares. Alternatively, if he is concern that the share price might decline from the current level, he can hedge and lock in the profit by shorting the counter (perhaps through CFDs or borrowed shares) until his rights are converted to actual shares.

if SIA’s share price is lower at that point, his hedges make money. If SIA’s share price is higher at that point, he can offset the losses on his hedges with his actual shares which are now worth more.

There could be other factors in play that might explain the price action of SIA such as potential redemption of short positions driving its share price up or the market all of a sudden became extremely positive over this rights issue. Bloomberg claims it could be due to hopes of easing lockdowns.

Already there are casualties in the market. The daily leverage -5x counter of SIA has been suspended as the underlying price has appreciated more than 20% from their theoretical adjusted price of S$3.71 which means that losses are now in excess 100% for this leverage product.

SIA RIGHTS: KEY TIMELINE

6 May: Ex-rights

13 May to 21 May: Rights and MCBs are being traded on the bourse

28 May: If you still own the Rights or MCBs (as original SIA shareholders who are entitled to it or if you purchase on the open market), this will be the last day for subscription. You can pay for your rights through the ATM if your SIA shares are held under your own CDP or pay it through your custodian broker account.

8 June: Rights share will start trading (if you have subscribe to your rights by paying S$3/rights, you will now have additional SIA shares)

9 June: If you have subscribe to your Rights MCBs at S$1/MCB, your rights will be converted into bonds which are also traded.

CONCLUSION
This has really been an eye opener and frankly a development which i did not expect.

SIA’s market cap has just appreciated by 26% overnight!

For readers who have more insights pertaining to this “unique” situation, do feel free to share your thoughts here.

Once again, this article is a guest post and was originally posted on Royston_Tans profile on InvestingNote. 

Become a part of our community and also see what other investors are saying about the current market right now: (click on the view now button)

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So what should investors be doing right now? Hold cash? Buy more? Or wait for it to bottom?

So what should investors be doing right now? Hold cash? Buy more? Or wait for it to bottom?

We’ve been getting a lot of questions from our community members lately but the questions more of less narrow down into one thing on each investor’s mind: So what should they be doing right now? Hold cash? Buy more? Or wait for it to bottom?

Truth is, nobody has a crystal ball that can foresee the future.

The more important question is, what we should be doing to improve our investing acumen & skills, so that we have the higher odds of earning profit from stocks even in a recession.

There’s really no better time to learn and pick up some investing skills & strategies since circuit breaker measures has most of us working from home until 1 June.

To help you with this, we’re introducing one of the best-selling online courses available on our marketplace, where you will learn How to Discover Giant Stocks with Value Investing Strategies.

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Learning Points:
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InvestingNote is the first and largest social network for investors in Singapore. Find out more about us here.

Download our free app here:

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Also, join our telegram channel here: t.me/investingnoteofficial

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Monday 4 May 12PM: LIVE Market Commentary with Terence Wong

Monday 4 May 12PM: LIVE Market Commentary with Terence Wong

Is the next wave coming? Get a better sense of the market from a professional fund manager’s point of view.

Watch & hear Azure Capital’s CEO Terence Wong in this market commentary webinar during lunchtime, as he will be sharing his updates & views on the current stock market conditions as an investment professional.

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Ask him anything on the Singapore market, from the largest blue chips to the smallest caps.

Venue: Attend online anywhere

Limited slots only.

Register for this webinar now: https://bit.ly/livemkt4may

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Watch the previous webinars here:
Apr 20: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oc47JTU2wwo&t=760s
Mar 30: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9BuhdzhZdRY&t=438s
Mar 16: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zD9VXxDGNZU&t=1575s


InvestingNote is the first and largest social network for investors in Singapore. Find out more about us here.

Download our free app here:

apple   android

Also, join our telegram channel here: t.me/investingnoteofficial

We’re here to keep you in touch with the latest investing & stock-related news, happenings and updates!

Special Market Report 2020

Special Market Report 2020

What’s next for the stock market in 3-6 months? [Special Report]

With several countries around the world in lockdowns in combined efforts to contain the COVID-19 virus, businesses from virtually all industries are affected.

However, the last few weeks, investors have been seeing a rebound and some countries like Germany and China are easing their lockdowns.

Meanwhile, in Singapore, we see daily surges in virus cases.

Are we in a recovery phase or is bad going to be worse?

Here’s a special report created by the team behind Traders Dashboard.

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Although this report was originally published in February, it details the long-term implications of China’s policy changes on Singapore’s market during this critical coronavirus situation.

Get the Report here.


InvestingNote is the first and largest social network for investors in Singapore. Find out more about us here.

Download our free app here:

apple   android

Also, join our telegram channel here: t.me/investingnoteofficial

We’re here to keep you in touch with the latest investing & stock-related news, happenings and updates!

 

New Oriental Education – This Company Grows at 138% In The Past 12 Months (Guest Post)

New Oriental Education – This Company Grows at 138% In The Past 12 Months (Guest Post)

This is a company that has returned 138% in the last 12 months for investors as the company is looking to grow even more in the next few years which spells opportunities if you are looking into a growth play.

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Brian Halim is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as 3Fs and 1800+ followers.

The company last closed at it’s historical high at $122.72 and it is continuing to grow at a very fast double digit topline growth in the next few years.

Company Overview

Founded in 1993, New Oriental Education & Tech Group (NYSE: EDU) is the largest provider of private educational services in China. The company has an extensive network of over 1,261 learning centres that span across 56 different cities. New Oriental was the first successful Chinese educational institution to be listed in the New York Stock Exchange through their public offering back in 2016 and it has a market capitalization of over USD14 billion today.

The company has a substantial presence in Beijing, Shanghai and Wuhan, where combined they have a total presence of 245 learning centres, or close to 20% of their entire portfolio.

Beijing: Beijing has one of the fastest growing population in China, as the number of people living in the city grew from 13.5m in 2000 to 20.1m in 2019 (source: worldpopulationreview). In terms of GDP per capita, Beijing has also outperformed the rest of the cities by growing at more than 8% per annum, despite the ongoing Trade Wars threatening the slowdown of their growing nation.

Shanghai: Shanghai currently ranks first in terms of population density as the modern revolutionized city appeals to International expats and locals to come to Shanghai for both work and live. It currently houses a population of about 26m but has the infrastructure capacity to double its living population in the city to 50m by 2050 (source: shine.cn) through their urbanization transformation in the region and strong economic growth.

Wuhan: Wuhan is a surprise inclusion because of its strong economic growth and infrastructure transformation over the years, the city has recorded one of the highest rate of historic population growth over the years (source: wiki-wuhan). To date, their population stands at about 10.6m, which is about half the population size of Beijing.

Financial Performance

Revenue has increased by 26.5% year on year from $2.4m in FY2018 to $3.1m in FY2019 and has grown at a CAGR of 19.8% over 5 years.

This is mainly due to both the organic aspect of growth (152 new facilities and learning centres added in FY2019) as well as inorganic growth through the successful implementation of the optimization strategy coming in from the K-12 After-School Tutoring division and U-Can Middle School, which grow by 28.5% and 27.2% respectively.

Gross Profit margins continued to remain resilient at 55.5% in FY2019, despite coming in slightly lower than the 5-year average of 57.3%.

As the company seek to embark on its expansion plan, the company has correspondingly incurred higher costs for marketing and other SG&A related costs such as salary and rent as there are higher headcounts to account for.

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Investing Workshop: How to Find and Evaluate Value-Growth Stocks

Investing Workshop: How to Find and Evaluate Value-Growth Stocks

We’re having an upcoming workshop next week on How to Find and Evaluate Value-Growth Stocks.

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Join James Yeo (SmallCapAsia), one of our leading veteran community members and financial blogger as he offers his take and style on investing to both novice and seasoned investors alike.

**Use promo code: FIVEOFF to enjoy $5 OFF!

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Also: Did you know that Warren Buffett made 99% of his fortune after his 50th birthday?

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350% in 7 trading days (Guest Post)

350% in 7 trading days (Guest Post)

Since the time when I mentioned about Y-Ventures last week, it had multiplied by 350%. It was about 7 trading days since it hit the bottom at 3.8 cents on 31 March and 1 April 2019. I had mentioned in the article that it probably worth a punt on the stock.

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Brennen Pak is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as Brennen Pak, with more than 3000+ followers.

Y Ventures

Y Ventures

Given that it is a penny stock, the queue in the buy column at that time was very low at 10,000 to 20,000 shares. So, it meant that you could key to buy at a few bits lower than the trading price and, still, somebody was willing to sell the stock to you. However, when one were to look at the the transaction volume, it was another story. It was comparatively huge, perhaps 1 to 2 million shares showing the market was full of spot sellers willing to short the stock for any ready buyer. For the past one year, the share price has been beaten down and was close to 5% of the peak value by end March/early April. This could be one of the best chance to buy the stock at fire-sale price. It can only happen when the market thinks that the company is on the brink of bankruptcy or is widely expecting a rights issue. The company was listed on the stock exchange fairly recently, of less than 2 years and the stock price has been affected by the fallen crypto-currency joint venture and the accounting fiasco that it experienced last year.

With the quantity of shares issued at 200 million, it is possible to buy 0.1% of the company with only $8,000 at the share price of 4 cents. (The pre-IPO share quantity was 35 million from which about $7m was raised.) It means that at 4 cents, it is below the pre-IPO price valued at 5 cents. In effect, it is worth the risk to take the plunge. At most, if the company did go bust (touch wood), I would lost a few thousand dollars. The potential upside should be higher than the downside.

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The STI is up nearly 10% YTD. What should you be doing now?

The STI is up nearly 10% YTD. What should you be doing now?

It’s already the beginning of the 2nd quarter of 2019.

Let’s take a look at how the Singapore stock market performed so far:

STI Singapore ES3 ETF
The Straits Times Index (STI) has rallied close to 10% since January this year.

So what should investors be doing right now? Hold cash? Buy more? Or wait for it to bottom?

There’s a sure thing that can be done…

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Will Genting Singapore Be Affected By The New Integrated Resorts’ Expansion?

Will Genting Singapore Be Affected By The New Integrated Resorts’ Expansion?

In a joint statement on Wednesday evening (April 3), the operators of the two integrated resorts (IR) will pump in $9 billion to build world-class attractions, which will include a fourth tower to the iconic Marina Bay Sands (MBS) development, three new hotels, a 15,000-seat entertainment arena and extensions to Universal Studios Singapore (USS).

Image result for mbs singapore casino

Image result for rws casino

The Ministry of Trade and Industry said that the $9 billion investment is almost two-thirds of the IRs’ initial investment of about $15 billion in 2006.

According to the Straits Times, MBS and Resorts World Sentosa (RWS) will be allowed to expand their casino operations, with their exclusive rights to run a casino here extended until the end of 2030.

However, their gambling revenue will be further taxed by the Government. This means that casino levies on Singapore residents will be increased. The daily levy will go up from $100 to $150 from Thursday (April 4), while the annual levy is being increased from $2,000 to $3,000.

Genting Singapore, which has its key business vested in RWS, has inadvertently been drawn into the limelight.

Genting Singapore has announced the plans to invest $4.5 billion to renew and refresh Resorts World Sentosa (RWS).

In view of this investment, the government has agreed to extend the exclusivity period for the two casinos at RWS and Marina Bay Sands (MBS) to end-2030. MBS, on the other hand, also committed to a $4.5 billion investment to expand its property.

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Financial questions regarding Hyflux debts? (Guest Post)

Financial questions regarding Hyflux debts? (Guest Post)

Just a few days ago, the headlines for the recent Hyflux Saga read: “Taxpayers’ money cannot be used to help investors recoup their losses, says minister,”.

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There was also a protest by disgruntled Hyflux investors at Hong Lim Park over the weekend.

Credits: Straits Times
Credits: Straits Times
Credits: Straits Times
Credits: Straits Times

I chanced upon the article on Hyflux story so far in BT Weekend, 23-24 March 2019. Given that it had listed the debts raised in the past years, I decided to compile them into a timeline in hope to have a better picture of Hyflux’s current predicament. What really puzzled me was the perpetual raised in 2016. It was stated that the perpetual of $500m was raised to redeem the two tranches of perpetuals raised for institutional and accredited investors. The first was $300m perpetual @5.75% raised in January 2014 and the second was $175m perpetual @4.8% raised in July 2014.

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Brennen Pak is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as Brennen Pak, with more than 3000+ followers.

 

Just purely from a financial management point of view, why is Hyflux willing to raise perpetual at 6% to redeem perpetuals at lower coupon rates. After all, the 4.8% and the 5.75% perpetuals were hardly 2-year old 3-year old respectively when they were redeemed. Why was Hyflux so anxious to redeem those perpetual bonds when the perpetuals are still so recent by any standards.

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