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TTI’s Portfolio Performance – May 2019 + Avenue Therapeutics Updates (Guest Post)

TTI’s Portfolio Performance – May 2019 + Avenue Therapeutics Updates (Guest Post)

May 2019’s a tough month, and no, there’s no new “Best. May. Ever” series… (Continuation of these:)

portfolio-750x440

This post was originally posted here. The writer, ThumbTackInvestor is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as ThumbTackInvestor and 2400+ followers.

Best. January. Ever.

Best. February. Ever.

Best. Mar……….. You Know The Drill!

TT Portfolio Performance & Review

Like most of everyone else, TTI’s portfolio ROI declined in May, alongside the volatility and market uncertainties from the trade wars.

SG Markets

Total portfolio value in SG markets is SGD 357,660.

Again, not much activity here, took profit on a tiny itsy bit of Geo Energy to redeploy into US markets, otherwise, holdings remain the same. I’m also not really spending much time looking in these waters.

Bonds

Again, nothing much to talk about here,the bond portfolio is approximately SGD 550,000.The intention is to leave all coupons to compound, with next to zero activity here.

US / Global Markets

ROI has declined from April 2019’s 40.61%, to the current 37.19% YTD.

Net Quantum investment gains YTD (excluding any capital injections/withdrawals) is thus USD 164,707.26

Current top/large winners include Wirecard, Avenue Therapeutics, Tesla shorts, JD.com shorts and a small position in the volatility derivative VXX.

The 2 biggest/most irritating losers are Centurylink (CTL) and Chesapeake Energy (CHK). I remain fairly optimistic about CTL, I just think the management needs to show a single quarter of revenue gain or even, just stabilization, and the share price would pop through the roof. In the meantime, I’m collecting like a 8% yield after the witholding taxes.

CHK on the other hand, is dead in the water. While Lawler has done a fantastic job deleveraging over the past couple of years, this may be too mammoth a task for him. Or he may need several years more. There’s hardly any difference in both scenarios.

Overall, I’m pretty pleased with how things are turning out for my US portfolio. Despite a drop of around 5% due to the trade wars in May, the gap between my ROI and the passive benchmarks is increasing, and the 3 indices I compare against are all at the 9-10% mark, and that puts my ROI this year at 3x that of mere mortals.

Alongside the huge volatility in May, the USD-SGD pairing also showed massive movements.

I’ve always said I’m no forex expert.

I don’t even think there’s such a thing.

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The Permanent Portfolio Might Do Worse in Retirement than the Traditional Equity Bond Portfolio (Guest Post)

The Permanent Portfolio Might Do Worse in Retirement than the Traditional Equity Bond Portfolio (Guest Post)

When it comes to wealth accumulation, many are a fan of Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio. Recently I wrote about it here.

money-in-jar

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Kyith is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as Kyith and 700+ followers.

One of the main take away from my article yesterday on how do you make $500,000 last for 60 years by withdrawing an initial amount of 5% of the portfolio was that high volatility is not very desirable when it comes to spending down our wealth.

So naturally, the permanent portfolio comes to mind a portfolio that is made up of components very uncorrelated that reduce the overall volatility.

If we revisit the table of portfolios recommended by famous experts the PERM and Risk P have the lowest standard deviation, lowest maximum draw down (MaxDD), good risk adjusted returns (Sharpe).

So how would they do in Timeline App?

I try to fix as much of the variables as yesterday’s base case, with only modification to the portfolio allocation:

1. I have a wealth of $500,000 that I wish to live off of

2. I want to see if I can start off spending $25,000 for the first year of my financial independence. This is 5% of my initial wealth of $500,000 (we call this an initial withdrawal rate of 5% versus the 4% withdrawal rate)

3. For subsequent years, I increase and decrease the $25,000/yr based on the inflation rate. If inflation is +4%, it will be the previous years’ spending x (1-0.04) and if inflation is -2%, then it is previous years’ spending x (1-(-0.02)). I will maintain my purchasing power (inflation adjusted)

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