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The Curious Case Of SIA’s Price Action After Ex-Rights (Guest post)

The Curious Case Of SIA’s Price Action After Ex-Rights (Guest post)

I am not sure if there are any fellow investors who find the price action of SIA (Singapore Airlines) pretty weird yesterday, the first day it went ex-rights. The stock actually appreciated more than 20+%!

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This post was originally posted here. The writer, Royston Tan is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as Royston_Tan.

SIA RIGHTS: THE CURIOUS CASE OF ITS PRICE ACTION

SIA went ex-rights today and there was some pretty weird action in its share price which I can’t seem to understand. I have previously written this article: SIA Rights Issue: Debunking the complication behind the Math. In that article, I tried to “simplify” the seemingly complicated SIA rights issue announcement and more importantly, look to calculate what might the trading price be for the Rights and the MCBs when they start trading on the bourse.

SIA’S VALUE WENT UP BY 26% OVERNIGHT?
SIA’s share price closed at S$5.91 yesterday. This morning, it went ex-rights. First I believe that the “Rights” here includes both the 1) Right Shares as well as 2) the Rights MCBs.

SIA previously calculated that the Theoretical ex-rights Price (TERP) was S$4.40/share based on the last traded price of S$6.50 before the announcement of the intended rights issue was made. This TERP only includes the Rights Share component, based on the issuance of approx 1.78bn shares.

I shown that the calculation of the TERP price was as such:

At S$6.50/share with 1.18bn of outstanding shares, the market cap of SIA is S$7.67bn.

With the issuance of 1.78bn rights shares, the total number of shares will increase to 2.96bn. Total amount of capital raised = 1.78bn * S$3.00 = S$5.34bn.

So post rights issuance market value of SIA = (existing market cap (S$7.67bn) + new cash raised (S$5.34bn)) / total number of new shares (2.96bn) = S$4.40/share.

Based on the last closing price of S$5.91 which indicates a market cap of S$6.97bn, the TERP should be (existing market cap(S$6.97bn) + new cash raised (S$5.34bn))/the total number of new shares (2.96bn) = S$4.16/share.

This morning, SIA’s share price open at S$4.20 which is around the calculated TERP. However, it traded up to as high as S$5.04 and as of this writing, it is at S$4.77.

The current price of S$4.77 is even higher than the TERP price of S$4.40 base on a pre-ex-rights price of S$6.50. The current S$4.77 price would indicate a pre-ex-rights price of S$7.44! WoW. Overnight, SIA’s price/share has increased from S$5.91 to S$7.44 which is an appreciation of 26%! What is going on here?

Seriously, I am not sure what the market is thinking at this moment pertaining to SIA. In the analysis above, I have also excluded the impact of the MCBs which should indicate a much lower TERP of S$4.16/share. Granted that these MCBs are not convertible to shares immediately. I have previously calculated that the ex-right price after all the conversions would have been in the arena of S$3.71/share based on the last closing price of S$5.91.

What is going to happen if the share price of SIA stays at S$4.77 when the rights are converted to shares (on the 8 June)?

Let’s assume that an investor bought 1000 shares of SIA yesterday at S$5.91/share. The total outlay will be S$5,910 (excluding comms etc). For 1000 shares, he will be entitled to 1,500 right shares. He can exercise the rights, paying S$3/rights, and convert them into actual shares.

His total outlay will be S$10,410 (S$5,910 + S$4,500) and he is now the proud owner of 2,500 SIA shares. At S$4.77/share, that will equate to a market value of S$11,925 which is a quick profit of S$1,515. In addition, he will still have 2,950 Rights MCB which should be worth some value when they are tradeable.

I last calculated that value to be approx S$0.37/Rights MCB. 2,950 of them will equate to another S$1,091 in value. Total profit could be a hefty S$2,606 based on an outlay of S$10,410 or a quick turnaround of 25%! Even if I am wrong in the calculation of the Rights MCB value, it cannot be negative.

Hence an investor who bought SIA shares at S$5.91/share before the ex-right date (which is May 6) will be able to pocket at least S$1,515/share if the share price remains at S$4.77/share when his rights are converted to shares. Alternatively, if he is concern that the share price might decline from the current level, he can hedge and lock in the profit by shorting the counter (perhaps through CFDs or borrowed shares) until his rights are converted to actual shares.

if SIA’s share price is lower at that point, his hedges make money. If SIA’s share price is higher at that point, he can offset the losses on his hedges with his actual shares which are now worth more.

There could be other factors in play that might explain the price action of SIA such as potential redemption of short positions driving its share price up or the market all of a sudden became extremely positive over this rights issue. Bloomberg claims it could be due to hopes of easing lockdowns.

Already there are casualties in the market. The daily leverage -5x counter of SIA has been suspended as the underlying price has appreciated more than 20% from their theoretical adjusted price of S$3.71 which means that losses are now in excess 100% for this leverage product.

SIA RIGHTS: KEY TIMELINE

6 May: Ex-rights

13 May to 21 May: Rights and MCBs are being traded on the bourse

28 May: If you still own the Rights or MCBs (as original SIA shareholders who are entitled to it or if you purchase on the open market), this will be the last day for subscription. You can pay for your rights through the ATM if your SIA shares are held under your own CDP or pay it through your custodian broker account.

8 June: Rights share will start trading (if you have subscribe to your rights by paying S$3/rights, you will now have additional SIA shares)

9 June: If you have subscribe to your Rights MCBs at S$1/MCB, your rights will be converted into bonds which are also traded.

CONCLUSION
This has really been an eye opener and frankly a development which i did not expect.

SIA’s market cap has just appreciated by 26% overnight!

For readers who have more insights pertaining to this “unique” situation, do feel free to share your thoughts here.

Once again, this article is a guest post and was originally posted on Royston_Tans profile on InvestingNote. 

Become a part of our community and also see what other investors are saying about the current market right now: (click on the view now button)

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Can SIA Fly Again?

Can SIA Fly Again?

Company Background:
Singapore Airlines Limited is engaged in passenger and cargo air transportation, engineering services, training of pilots, air charters and tour wholesaling and related activities. The Company has four segments that contribute to its operating revenue:
1. Airline operations
2. Engineering services
3. Cargo operations
4. Others

The SIA Group has more than 20 subsidiaries with all the experts, which include(but not limited to):
1. SilkAir (a wholly owned subsidiary)
2. Scoot (a wholly owned subsidiary)
3. TigerAir (a wholly owned subsidiary)
4. Singapore Airlines Cargo

SIA’s business model:

One strength of SIA group is their well diversified and targeted business. After the group took 56% ownership stake of Tiger Airways and become its parent company in October 2014, SIA accomplished their strategic portfolio. Subsidiaries include Silkair, Scoot air and Tigerair, all contribute to the revenue of SIA group. The well structured business model also plays an important role in passengers yield battle amid SIA group and their competitors.

Recent Events & News:
Singapore Airlines, financial result 2015/2016, find the full report here.

March 20, ‘SIA Cargo may make provision in current financial year due to fine’, refer to the news here.

March 17, ‘SIA, 10 other airlines hit with S$1.2 billion fine by EU regulators for taking part in cargo cartel’, see the content here.

March 15, ‘SIA’s load factor up 3.2 percentage points in February’, check the detail of performance here.

Performance Summary:
SIA group, the flag carrier based in Singapore, maintain their steady operating performance since 2012. In 2016, their net profit doubled, which is not really a result of better operation, but mainly because of decreasing fuel price and less loss in the activities from hedging on fuel. SIA preserves a stable balance sheet. The group gained high dividend on long-term investment, thus spent additional money in investing, plus less proceeds from different disposals and share insurance, SIA held lower amount of free cash in 2016. When compared to competitors, SIA keep the most stable performance. Under the circumstance that Cathay Pacific met loss this year, SIA managed to beat Cathay by profit margin, but threat from budget airline companies are still serious.

Financial Highlights:
1. Operating performance:

a) FY2016 performance:
Compared to the performance in 2015, SIA observed 2.1% drop in their revenue in 2016. Revenue was decreased in all four business segments. For flight carrier like SIA, the fuel cost will occupied large portion of the total operating expenditure. Thus, the $1052.7 reduction of fuel cost in 2016 was the main reason of 4% expenditure decline in the income statement.

News about the effect of lower fuel price on SIA’s net profit in the financial year of 2016: ‘SIA profits soar on lower fuel prices, one-off gains’, refer to the news here.

Meanwhile, profit of SIA doubled with the quantity of $851.8m in 2016, compared to the number of $406.7m in the last year. SIA has achieved outstanding result in profit in 2016. To find out the reason behind the sharp rise, formula of net profit is provided here:

Net profit = Operating profit + Other Profit – Other Expenditures

Thus, in the case of SIA, the growth of profit was a consolidate contribution from:
1. Lower fuel expenditures due to oil price decline
2. Higher operating profit of $604m, which arose from less ”Fuel hedging loss recognised in ‘Fuel costs’”
3. Higher other profit such as Dividends from long-term investments
4. Lower other expenditures such as Impairment of aircraft

However, it turned out that the significant progress in net profit is not really a result of improved operation.

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