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Thoughts On CK Hutchison Holdings 2019 Results (Guest Post)

Thoughts On CK Hutchison Holdings 2019 Results (Guest Post)

2019 was a pretty challenging year by all standards. Being listed in Hong Kong, investors were concern about the impact of Hong Kong Riots on results. Since they have enough assets in Europe, a region which many believe is declining, they were concern about how Brexit impacts them. The declining in Euro and GBP, trade war between the United States vs China and Europe and also in recent times, it is Covid-19 and the plunge in oil prices will impact them.

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Kyith Ng is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as Kyith and has 953 followers.

 

In terms of investments, CK Hutchison (0001.HK…) will probably go down as one of my poorer investments.

I got it at $85.90, $87.65, $81.25, $80.60, $82.90, $76.40, $67.90, $55.45. Based on cost, this is one of my largest position. It may go down as one of my biggest mistakes.

CK Hutchison or CKH for short is the listed flagship company of Li Kar Shing. In 2018, he step down from the company, handing the reins over to his eldest son Victor Li.

Victor Li manages CKH together with the best-paid employee in Hong Kong Canning Fok and Frank SIXT.

CKH this week together with their sister companies CKI, CKA, and Power Assets announced their full-year results.

In terms of key metrics this is how it lines up:

  1. Share price: HK$49.60
  2. Total outstanding shares: 3.8 billion
  3. Total market capitalisation: HK$188.5 billion
  4. Enterprise Value: HK$395.5 billion
  5. Net earnings attributable to shareholders: HK$39.9 billion (2018: HK$39 billion)
  6. Free cash flow: HK$35.7 billion (2018: HK$24.7 billion)
  7. Earnings Yield: 21%
  8. FCF Yield: 18.9%
  9. Dividend per Share: HK$3.17 (2018: HK$3.17)
  10. Prevailing dividend yield: 6.39%
  11. Dividend Payout Ratio: 30%
  12. Net Debt to Asset: 19.3%
  13. EV/EBITDA: 3.53 times
  14. Price / Equity (net of non-controlling interests): 0.40 times.

 

Why a Post on CKH Matters

On paper, you do not wish to hear me talk about one of possibly my big investment failures. But I thought the results are applicable in the context of what we are going through today.

CKH operations happens to be global:

  1. Ports in China, Hong Kong, Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, UK, Spain, Poland, Sweden, Malaysia, Indonesia, South Korea, Thailand, Pakistan, Thailand, Australia, Egypt, Oman, UAE
  2. Retail Beauty & Health stores through AS Watson, ParknShop, Rossman, Drogas in Albania, Belgium, Czech, Germany, HK, Hungary, Indonesia, Ireland, Latvia, Macau, Malaysia, the Netherlands, Poland, Russia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, UK, Vietnam
  3. Infrastructure through CKI in Australia, Canada, Germany, Hong Kong, Mainland China, The Netherlands, New Zealand, UK, Portugal.
  4. Energy in Canada through Husky Oil
  5. Telecommunications in the UK, Italy, Sweden, Denmark, Austria, Ireland, CKH Networks, Indonesia,

2019 is a pretty challenging year by all standards. Being listed in Hong Kong, investors were concern about the impact of Hong Kong Riots on results. Since they have enough assets in Europe, a region which many believe is declining, they were concern about how Brexit impacts them. The declining Euro and GBP is a concern as well. As they are tapped into so many areas of world trade, investors were concerned about how the trade war between the United States vs China and Europe will impact them.

In recent times, it is Covid-19 and the plunge in oil prices.

There is definitely no escape for CKH. They tried to pillage the world. Now the world will royally fxxk them.

In the results update, we can learn more about how well they navigate these challenging times and how Covid-19 and the oil crisis have been for them.

Here we go.

…

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Global Indexes In 2019: How did global indexes really perform?

Global Indexes In 2019: How did global indexes really perform?

The Straits Times Index (STI) performance (with dividends) is around 8%.

Now take a look at the comparison tables for major global indexes. Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/

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Don’t make the same mistake that I made 2 decades ago (Guest Post)

Don’t make the same mistake that I made 2 decades ago (Guest Post)

For the calendar year 2018, the Straits Times Index (STI) retreated from 3400.91 at the close of Year 2017 to 3068.76 at the close of Year 2018. The absolute fall for the calendar year 2018 was more than 10%. It had defied the predictions of many analysts.

Many of them were generally bullish at the beginning of Year 2018. By today, on the 1st day of trading for Year 2019, it retreated another nearly 30 points, -29.87 (to be exact). Surely, many players have been slowly but surely cashed out of the market as the market retreated. Even those with cash to spare were not willing to get into the market. Just as we know in economics, there were more sellers than buyers for year 2018. That, precisely, was the reason for the market to fall.

This post was originally posted here. The writer is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as BrennenPak, with more than 3,000+ followers.

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With each market fall, it flushes out some players. The unfortunate thing is market retreats and advances are never linear with time. They are never exactly predictable, especially over a longer of period of 6 months and longer. Market volatilities are due to the changing political, economic and social conditions that are thrown out into the market from time to time. Frankly who is able to predict what an influential political figure will say or act next week or next month or next year. Most of the rise and falls were due to some smart Alex out there trying to anticipate the moves of these people before things really happen. Unfortunately, time and again, it almost always sucks in new players and throw out some others as the market rise and falls in a falling trend. Many players, who were unable to take the market gyrations would have cashed out of the market, and stayed in cash in hope to fight for another day.

Let me say this. Market gyrations are not an easy thing to stomach, especially for those who are very watchful of the market movements. In fact, many are willing to take losses and leave the market instead of riding through the market ups and downs as sentiments get hazy. Along with the falling market, I am quite sure a number of us have this floating thought “I would rather take a small return of even 1-2% to protect my capital than to see my capital dwindling with time.” That precisely became the guiding principle that drives their action. So, instead of staying liquid after cashing out, they choose to put the money into more certain investments. They gladly put their money in longer term plans, such as fixed deposits and Singapore government bonds and even insurance plans that can only yield rewards (if there really are any), at least, 1, 2 years or even a few years down the road. I mention this because I happened to see some posts in social media lately. Some people seemed to have decided to take this course of action. Frankly, this was exactly the mistake that I made 20 years ago. …

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