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Sucker Rally?

Sucker Rally?

Now’s a good time to take some profits.

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Willie Keng is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with a username known as @Willie and has close to 120 followers.

Here’s why.

As far as I know about market rallies, my instinct tells me the rally will continue to go on.

I mean, money is flowing, people think we have seen the bottom.

Especially when you’re getting headlines like “Stocks Have Already Bottomed. How We know?”

The Dow has sneaked past the bear’s eyes.

And it’s already up 19%, from the bottom in earlier September. The S&P 500 is up 12% over the same period.

The Dow could possibly go back up past 36,000. The S&P 500 could possibly go back up past 4,000. But don’t take my word for it. I’m just plucking numbers from thin air.

I mean, what do I know about market predictions? I only (try to) collect great businesses.

What’s driving this bear market rally

First, in yesterday’s meeting, the Fed said they could slow down rate hikes (but more on that later), which is a good thing since this tells me actual inflation could have slowed down.

US mortgage rates have fallen, and other currencies are strengthening against the USD, which means capital is flowing back to emerging markets — or riskier assets.

I mean, the market can go from believing nothing will go wrong to believing that nothing will go right, in a flash. That’s Mr. Market. Well, at least that’s my reality of Mr. Market.

The kind of delusional optimism that will continue to push the rally on.

Or what it’s called – a sucker’s rally.

The same delusional optimism that a bold investor once said Tesla could reach $4,000 per shares in 2025.

Market cycles tend to average 33% down before they recover, some could take longer, some could be shorter – and we still have more room to go.
There are still places where they have yet to sort things out.

The UK is still in some sort of recession — fighting inflation and dealing with their fiscal deficits.

China is still dancing along theput your one leg in, one leg outcovid policy. In the most recent news, Shanghai has asked new arrivals to stay from public places for five days, starting today.

That means, people going to the 26 million populous city are barred for close to a week, including restaurants, shopping malls, supermarkets and even internet cafes.

Then, the war in Ukraine still rages on.

But what’s crucial here, tech companies, being the broader part of the S&P 500 index, have shown stunning numbers of job cuts:

  • Meta Platforms: 11,000 layoffs
  • Snap: 1,200 layoffs
  • Twitter: slashed by half
  • Alphabet: plans for 10,000 job cuts
  • Amazon: plans for 10,000 job cuts
  • Also, Apple has also stopped hiring

The thing is, when global companies freeze headcounts and cut budgets, these big companies are just getting started. What about the small businesses that drive the bulk of economies?

When businesses project gloomy time ahead, they cut spending. For consumers?

Instead of buying that thirteenth fridge, perhaps you might stick to just one.

Or perhaps just grab dinner from the hawker stall downstairs, instead of dining at Haidilao.

Well, it’s what’s looming on the horizon that could catch almost everyone by surprise.

“Most Federal Reserve officials say slower rate hike pace appropriate ‘soon’”

That’s what I got from this morning’s paper.

I wouldn’t take this as a sign of renewed optimism. At the end, it’s not how fast or how slow interest rates go up.

And who knows, the Fed could have rates go beyond 5%, since rate hikes have toppled the yield curve to a shape that doesn’t make sense for any bond analyst.

When the yield curve inverts, this is a warning signal (see red circles):

10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity  Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity

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Manulife REIT: Buy at 14% Dividend Yield?

Manulife REIT: Buy at 14% Dividend Yield?

Manulife REIT (MUST) shares tanked 43% since the start of this year, which makes this “pure-play” US office Singapore REIT really attractive.

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Willie Keng is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with a username known as @Willie and has close to 120 followers.

What’s more today, MUST’s market cap trades at just half of what its assets are truly worth – MUST shares trade at just 0.55x P/NAV.

Why are investors so bearish about this Singapore REIT? Because of COVID? Because of rising rates? I mean, MUST shares trade like investors don’t want to be in US offices anymore.

Is that really the case? Let’s find out.

My previous article on Manulife REIT can be found here.

Background — What is Manulife REIT?

At US$666 million market cap, Manulife REIT (MUST) was the first US office REIT to be listed in Singapore, during 2016.

MUST owns freehold, class-A office assets across prime areas of US cities, including Washington DC, Los Angeles, Atlanta and so on. Back then, MUST overall occupancy rate was 96.5% — which was above average US offices’ occupancy rate.

Manulife REIT's Asset Under Management (AUM)
Manulife REIT’s Asset Under Management (AUM)

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A simple Trading Strategy with a winning rate of 88.89%

A simple Trading Strategy with a winning rate of 88.89%

In today’s training, I’ll share a trading strategy with an 88.89% winning rate.

A simple Trading Strategy with a Winning rate of 88.89%

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Rayner Teo is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with a username known as @Rayner and has close to 750 followers.

I’ll give you the following:

  • Exact trading rules
  • The performance matrix of this strategy
  • Examples
  • And much more

Are you excited?

Then let’s get started.

So first…

What is the strategy with a winning rate of 88.89%, and how does it work?

The core idea behind this trading strategy is that it’s a pullback stock trading strategy.

Why not a breakout, you may ask?

Because in the long run, the stock market is in a long-term uptrend as it tracks what the economy is doing.

The US Stock Market has been in a long-term uptrend since the 1900s because the US economy back in the 1900s compared to today has improved!

It’s the same thing for other stock markets in other parts of the world.

But here’s the thing…

Just because a market is in a long-term uptrend doesn’t mean it goes up in one straight line.

What do I mean?

In the short run, prices could go below their valuation because of panic selling and profit-taking.

These are often called “corrections.”

As pullback traders, we can take advantage of it.

Makes sense?

Let’s now go to the meat of this training guide…

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Is it Time to ‘Run Road’?

Is it Time to ‘Run Road’?

‘Run Road’ (or in Chinese known as 跑路) is a layman term to describe the act of ‘dropping everything and just run away.’

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Jun Yuan Lim is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with a username known as @ljunyuan and has close to 2000 followers.

This is the exact scenario happening in the stock market right now, where many dumped their stocks out of extreme fear (that a recession is coming and their stocks could potentially lose even more) and in so doing, ended up burning a BIG hole in their pockets.

Question: Is this a sensible thing to do, and more importantly, for those who are still holding on (to your stocks), should you also follow the crowd to dump everything and ‘run’?

In this post, you’ll find my analysis about the current situation, outlook ahead, and also what I would do (both as a long-term investor, as well as a short-term swing trader):

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Boot Barn Holdings Inc. ($BOOT) – What You Need to Know about the Largest Lifestyle Retail Chain in the United States

Boot Barn Holdings Inc. ($BOOT) – What You Need to Know about the Largest Lifestyle Retail Chain in the United States

Founded since 1978, and currently with 273 stores in 36 states, Boot Barn Holdings Inc. (NYSE:BOOT) is currently United States’ largest lifestyle retail chain devoted to western and work-related footwear, apparel, and accessories.

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Lim Jun Yuan is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with a username known as @ljunyuan and has close to 2000 followers.

Some of the brands (which Singaporeans are probably familiar with) you can find in the company’s retail and online stores include Carhartt, Dickies, Wrangler, and Timberland Pro.

In this post, you’ll learn about some of the key performances by the company over the past 8 years (between FY2014/15 and FY2021/22 – the company has a financial year ending every last Saturday of March), such as its financial performances and its debt profile. I’ll also be sharing whether or not the company’s current traded price is considered ‘cheap’ or ‘expensive’ based on its current vs. its 8-year valuation.

Let’s begin:

Total Revenue & Net Profit:

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TECFAST – An Almost Guaranteed 80% Upside?(Guestpost)

TECFAST – An Almost Guaranteed 80% Upside?(Guestpost)

TECFAST (0084) : An Almost Guaranteed 80% Upside?

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Teoh Tian Heng is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with a username known as @thteoh58.

 

Dear investors, if you are reading the article, that means that you surely are not settling with a mere 10% to 15% rate of return per annum for your investments. I mean, who does?

Anyway, the article today will show you a qualitative and quantitative study on the business of TECFAST as well as the finances, as to how this company could be almost guaranteed to deliver a MINIMAL of 60% upside.

Qualitative Studies

TECFAST (or the “Company”) had an elaborate plan as to what, and when to venture into the oil and gas business. Dated 6th November 2020, we noticed that there is an LOI between Fast Energy Sdn Bhd (“FESB”), a wholly owned subsidiary of TECFAST and Zillion Oil Timor LDA. This marks the very beginning of journey for TECFAST to enjoy the recovery of busy offshore activities as well as the recovering oil price.

However, the LOI does not show any materialized information. It was until 15th March 2021 that the Company starts to deliver on what they promised.

Dated 15th March 2021, the Company had entered into a supply agreement between FESB and Wise Marine Pte Ltd (“Wise Marine”) – one of the largest ship management services players in Singapore, with a total contract value of RM2,222,856,000.00. With this size of a contract, it is normal for investor to treat it as some “not realistic”. Hence, the reflect in share price upon the announcement.

A deeper study into a contract would note that FESB would supply up to 30,000 metric tonnes of low sulphur fuel oil, low sulphur marine gasoil and high sulphur fuel oil per month to Wise Marine. The marine gasoil or fuel oil are collectively known as Marine Gas Oil (“MGO”). MGO are mainly used to power offshore transportation vehicles, such as oil tank, vessels, bunker ship and so forth. It is also interesting to point out that whatever FESB was selling to Wise Marine are based on a certain premium on top of the costs, are more commonly known as the “Cost-Plus” basis. This does not mean that FESB will never suffer losses, but as long as MGO prices are stable or on an uptrend, TECFAST as the holding company, would be the beneficiary of it.

A reference on Singapore Mogas 95 Unleaded Futures could see that since July 2020, the prices of MGOs are increasing on a steadfast trend.

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Future Insurance Policy Illustrated Investment Rate Reduced(guestpost)

Future Insurance Policy Illustrated Investment Rate Reduced(guestpost)

Future Insurance Policy Illustrated Investment Rate to be reduced to 4.25% and 3.00% from 4.75% and 3.25%.

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Kyith Ng is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with a username known as @kyith and has 1,000+ followers.

Last week, we received an announcement that with effect from 1st July 2021, the policy illustrated investment rate (PIRR) will be lowered from 4.7% to 4.25% and 3.25% to 3.00% respectively.

What is Your Policy’s Illustrated Investment Rate (PIRR)?

Some of your insurance policies accumulate cash values. You contribute additional capital, on top of insurance charges to it.

The insurance companies will take your capital and invest in a participating fund. You can see this partipating fund as a pool of stocks, bonds, cash, property investments managed by a group of managers, much like your unit trust, hedge fund with a certain mandate.

 The performance of this participating fund’s return determines how much cash value is accumulated.

Typically, endowment planslimited whole life plans are the kind of policies whose cash value is tied to the performance of the participating fund.

Term plans do not accumulate values so they are not impacted by this illustrated investment rate in any way. Investment-linked policies (ILP) performance is tied to the underlying unitt trust chosen and therefore are not affected by this. Universal life policy returns are typically determined by crediting rate or a hybrid benchmark for those indexed link, so they are less affected by this as well.

The following extracts are taken from a policy’s benefits illustration:

You can see that there are two investment rate of return provided to illustrate to you how much value your policy will accumulate in due time.

One is a optimistic rate (4.75% a year) the other is conservative (3.25% a year)

This is for illustrative purpose. It does not mean that the eventual investment return will fall between 3.25% and 4.75%.

 Here are the actual historical investment return of different insurance companies:

You will notice that year to year, the investment return varies.

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Learning to Die with Zero. The Last Check Must Bounce (guestpost)

Learning to Die with Zero. The Last Check Must Bounce (guestpost)

My friend Christopher Ng recommended to his reader to read this book by Bill Perkins called Die with Zero.

I do not know whether it is a good book or not but I think it might be thought provoking enough for me to read it.

Die with Zero sought to answer a core question we all seek:

What’s the best way to allocate our life energy before we die?

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Kyith Ng is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with a username known as @kyith and has 1,000+ followers.

When Bill released this book, I also heard many interviews that he did to promote his book. This book… might be the book to help re-calibrate my thinking. After doing so much research on how much a person need to accumulate so that they won’t run out of money in retirement, we need a book to teach us not to spend all our time accumulating.

Is this a good book? Personally, I find it hard to connect with.

In this article, I list out some of the notable takeaways from Bill Perkins.

Consumption Smoothing

The first concept that Bill explained was consumption smoothing. Bill took a page out of a time when he started working not too long ago. Back then, he was very thrifty and extremely proud about it.

However his boss, who is a partner at the company he worked for was astonished he was saving so much.

 “Are you a f***ing idiot? To save that money?”

It was a slap across Bill’s face.

 His boss Joe Farrel said: “You came here to make millions, ” he said. “Your earning power is going to happen! Do you think you’ll only make 18 thousand a year for the rest of your life?”

In his boss’s mind, Bill would eventually made much more than that.

He could certainly spend today and not save this sum of money.

It was a life-changing moment for Bill as it cracked his head open to new ideas about how to balance his earnings and spending.

If we look at our income chart over the years, it should be upward sloping. Due to our experience over time, we should earn more.

If we know that, we should be able to spend a greater percentage of our income today because eventually, we will make more and our savings rate will go down, but the savings in the future will make up for the higher consumption today.

We will basically transfer money from years of abundance into the leaner years.

What is difficult to connect for a lot of people is how much higher would your salary be in the future?

To use myself as an example, some of my peers are currently director of security while others are still a team lead in a small company.

If we smoothed out our income, the director of security and the team lead would be totally different.

I get the idea but I think whether it is sensible for us to do that or not is subjective.

Investing in Experiences

Your life is the sum of your experiences.

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Are Old Economy Stocks Back In Favour?

Are Old Economy Stocks Back In Favour?

Tech stocks have been on the selldown for weeks across different markets. From Tesla, Alibaba to Tencent and Meituan, none of these stocks were spared as most were down by at least 20% from the highs in the beginning of this year. This has caused the global economy to be stirred up.

However, there has been a resurgence in the old economy. For example, banks stocks like JP Morgan, Hang Seng Bank, DBS and HSBC have seeing a strong uptrend of more than 10% over the same time period. For example, the MSCI China banks index has outperformed the MSCI China index by 25%-pts over the last two months, slowly but surely boosting older economy and markets.

banks-edm

What are these trends telling us? What conclusions can we draw? What are the key things investors should be looking for?

As global vaccines are being rolled out, the possibility of a speedy recovery of the global economy and life returning to ‘normal’ increased. This has stirred up interest in the long-ignored value stocks. Hence, investments have started to rotate from the new economy to the old economy.
investor-thinking
Get deep insights on what exactly is happening to the markets right now from two of our distinguished guest speakers. Chi-man Wong is the Head of Research at China Galaxy International (CGI). He focuses on strategy research and covers the building materials and brokerage sectors. Industry Experience: He has 18 years of experience in the equity research industry. Prior to joining CGI in 2012, he worked as an analyst in both Chinese and foreign investment banks, including Phillip Securities, Everbright Securities, and Piper Jaffray Asia.

Adrian Chew is the Vice President, Sales and Product Strategy (S.E.A) at CSOP. At CSOP Asset Management, Adrian oversees ETF investment solutions for Brokers, Wealth Managers, and Family Offices in Singapore. Adrian is also part of a team responsible for developing sales strategy and strategic partnerships with institutions in South East Asia. Prior to joining CSOP Asset Management, he worked for RHB Asset Management where he was a Business Development Manager for mass and affluent Investors, Wealth Managers, and Intermediaries.

Register for this exclusive LIVE webinar now: 

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Patience Is Required For Alibaba And JD.com (guestpost)

Patience Is Required For Alibaba And JD.com (guestpost)

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Brian Halim is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with a username known as @3Fs and has 2,000+ followers.

I thought I’ll pen down my thoughts after receiving a number of emails this week from various sources asking for guidance on two big China cap names – Alibaba and JD.com – both of which have seen shares plummeting each day for the past few consecutive weeks.

Many readers would also know that I own Alibaba shares from my last monthly update and have also recently written a piece on JD analysis so it’s something which I’ll walk the talk.

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE: Baba)

alibaba-image-blog

Let’s start with Baba first.

This is probably the most hated large cap company right now in the entire planet.

The entire saga started when the intention to list Ant IPO was shelved and the State Administration for Market Regulators went to investigate the entire company’s holding structure.

Since then, the State of Administration has concluded by fining the company US$2.8billion – which the company chose to take in the Q4 FY2021 report announced last night.

The entire saga has shed the company 37% (more than 1/3) of its market cap from the peak – which in my opinion is a bit overdone. The RSI indicator confirmed the same by showing that the counter is currently in oversold territory.

If we look at the results announced yesterday, total revenue for the quarter was RMB 717 billion, an increase of 41% year on year.

The growth was driven by robust revenue growth of the China commerce retail business (Taobao, Tmall) and the continued growth of its cloud computing business.

Total adjusted EBITDA was RMB 170 billion, which is an increase of 24% year on year. There was the one-off adjustment from the anti-monopoly fine which was taken in the quarter, so it pushed the net comprehensive income for the quarter to negative loss territory.

Cash position remains solid at RMB 479 million with free cash flow coming in strongly at 32% to RMB 173 million.

During the conference call held yesterday, management has reiterated its intention to continue investing in R&D and also new seed of businesses such as Taobao Deals (which aims for the lowest of the market segment tiers), Taobao Grocery, Freshippo supermarket (which is the community marketplace business) and new features on the core platform such as Taobao Live and short-form video. The company is also enhancing its logistics arms, CaiNiao to give its competitors such as JD a good run for their money.

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