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The Curious Case Of SIA’s Price Action After Ex-Rights (Guest post)

The Curious Case Of SIA’s Price Action After Ex-Rights (Guest post)

I am not sure if there are any fellow investors who find the price action of SIA (Singapore Airlines) pretty weird yesterday, the first day it went ex-rights. The stock actually appreciated more than 20+%!

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This post was originally posted here. The writer, Royston Tan is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as Royston_Tan.

SIA RIGHTS: THE CURIOUS CASE OF ITS PRICE ACTION

SIA went ex-rights today and there was some pretty weird action in its share price which I can’t seem to understand. I have previously written this article: SIA Rights Issue: Debunking the complication behind the Math. In that article, I tried to “simplify” the seemingly complicated SIA rights issue announcement and more importantly, look to calculate what might the trading price be for the Rights and the MCBs when they start trading on the bourse.

SIA’S VALUE WENT UP BY 26% OVERNIGHT?
SIA’s share price closed at S$5.91 yesterday. This morning, it went ex-rights. First I believe that the “Rights” here includes both the 1) Right Shares as well as 2) the Rights MCBs.

SIA previously calculated that the Theoretical ex-rights Price (TERP) was S$4.40/share based on the last traded price of S$6.50 before the announcement of the intended rights issue was made. This TERP only includes the Rights Share component, based on the issuance of approx 1.78bn shares.

I shown that the calculation of the TERP price was as such:

At S$6.50/share with 1.18bn of outstanding shares, the market cap of SIA is S$7.67bn.

With the issuance of 1.78bn rights shares, the total number of shares will increase to 2.96bn. Total amount of capital raised = 1.78bn * S$3.00 = S$5.34bn.

So post rights issuance market value of SIA = (existing market cap (S$7.67bn) + new cash raised (S$5.34bn)) / total number of new shares (2.96bn) = S$4.40/share.

Based on the last closing price of S$5.91 which indicates a market cap of S$6.97bn, the TERP should be (existing market cap(S$6.97bn) + new cash raised (S$5.34bn))/the total number of new shares (2.96bn) = S$4.16/share.

This morning, SIA’s share price open at S$4.20 which is around the calculated TERP. However, it traded up to as high as S$5.04 and as of this writing, it is at S$4.77.

The current price of S$4.77 is even higher than the TERP price of S$4.40 base on a pre-ex-rights price of S$6.50. The current S$4.77 price would indicate a pre-ex-rights price of S$7.44! WoW. Overnight, SIA’s price/share has increased from S$5.91 to S$7.44 which is an appreciation of 26%! What is going on here?

Seriously, I am not sure what the market is thinking at this moment pertaining to SIA. In the analysis above, I have also excluded the impact of the MCBs which should indicate a much lower TERP of S$4.16/share. Granted that these MCBs are not convertible to shares immediately. I have previously calculated that the ex-right price after all the conversions would have been in the arena of S$3.71/share based on the last closing price of S$5.91.

What is going to happen if the share price of SIA stays at S$4.77 when the rights are converted to shares (on the 8 June)?

Let’s assume that an investor bought 1000 shares of SIA yesterday at S$5.91/share. The total outlay will be S$5,910 (excluding comms etc). For 1000 shares, he will be entitled to 1,500 right shares. He can exercise the rights, paying S$3/rights, and convert them into actual shares.

His total outlay will be S$10,410 (S$5,910 + S$4,500) and he is now the proud owner of 2,500 SIA shares. At S$4.77/share, that will equate to a market value of S$11,925 which is a quick profit of S$1,515. In addition, he will still have 2,950 Rights MCB which should be worth some value when they are tradeable.

I last calculated that value to be approx S$0.37/Rights MCB. 2,950 of them will equate to another S$1,091 in value. Total profit could be a hefty S$2,606 based on an outlay of S$10,410 or a quick turnaround of 25%! Even if I am wrong in the calculation of the Rights MCB value, it cannot be negative.

Hence an investor who bought SIA shares at S$5.91/share before the ex-right date (which is May 6) will be able to pocket at least S$1,515/share if the share price remains at S$4.77/share when his rights are converted to shares. Alternatively, if he is concern that the share price might decline from the current level, he can hedge and lock in the profit by shorting the counter (perhaps through CFDs or borrowed shares) until his rights are converted to actual shares.

if SIA’s share price is lower at that point, his hedges make money. If SIA’s share price is higher at that point, he can offset the losses on his hedges with his actual shares which are now worth more.

There could be other factors in play that might explain the price action of SIA such as potential redemption of short positions driving its share price up or the market all of a sudden became extremely positive over this rights issue. Bloomberg claims it could be due to hopes of easing lockdowns.

Already there are casualties in the market. The daily leverage -5x counter of SIA has been suspended as the underlying price has appreciated more than 20% from their theoretical adjusted price of S$3.71 which means that losses are now in excess 100% for this leverage product.

SIA RIGHTS: KEY TIMELINE

6 May: Ex-rights

13 May to 21 May: Rights and MCBs are being traded on the bourse

28 May: If you still own the Rights or MCBs (as original SIA shareholders who are entitled to it or if you purchase on the open market), this will be the last day for subscription. You can pay for your rights through the ATM if your SIA shares are held under your own CDP or pay it through your custodian broker account.

8 June: Rights share will start trading (if you have subscribe to your rights by paying S$3/rights, you will now have additional SIA shares)

9 June: If you have subscribe to your Rights MCBs at S$1/MCB, your rights will be converted into bonds which are also traded.

CONCLUSION
This has really been an eye opener and frankly a development which i did not expect.

SIA’s market cap has just appreciated by 26% overnight!

For readers who have more insights pertaining to this “unique” situation, do feel free to share your thoughts here.

Once again, this article is a guest post and was originally posted on Royston_Tans profile on InvestingNote. 

Become a part of our community and also see what other investors are saying about the current market right now: (click on the view now button)

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So what should investors be doing right now? Hold cash? Buy more? Or wait for it to bottom?

So what should investors be doing right now? Hold cash? Buy more? Or wait for it to bottom?

We’ve been getting a lot of questions from our community members lately but the questions more of less narrow down into one thing on each investor’s mind: So what should they be doing right now? Hold cash? Buy more? Or wait for it to bottom?

Truth is, nobody has a crystal ball that can foresee the future.

The more important question is, what we should be doing to improve our investing acumen & skills, so that we have the higher odds of earning profit from stocks even in a recession.

There’s really no better time to learn and pick up some investing skills & strategies since circuit breaker measures has most of us working from home until 1 June.

To help you with this, we’re introducing one of the best-selling online courses available on our marketplace, where you will learn How to Discover Giant Stocks with Value Investing Strategies.

Veteran investor and educator, Dr. Tee will explain, breakdown all the strategies and reveal his 11 critical FA criteria that he always uses to identify giant stocks, in a simple and easy to understand way. He will also demonstrate how exactly to screen good stocks globally.

This is the online video course suitable for both beginners to intermediate investors to get a sense of the different strategies and how to pick stocks to build a stronger portfolio – with updated course content spanning 7 hours over 9 learning modules!

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Learning Points:
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2) Apply Fundamental Analysis (FA) with 3 Key Financial Statements and 11 Critical FA Criteria to Identify Global Giant Stocks
– Income Statement
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– Selection Criteria for Growth Stocks, Undervalue Stocks & Dividend Stocks
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The instructor for this online course is Dr. Tee Tong Yan, who holds a PhD specialized in computational simulation.

Dr Tee Tong Yan holds a PhD specialized in computational simulation. He possesses over 20 years of trading/investing experience with in-depth knowledge in stocks and various major investment markets. He was a corporate Vice President, now the founder of a consulting firm. He has achieved financial freedom, spending most of his free time in life mission to educate the public towards the right path of investing.

Dr Tee is the founder of www.ein55.com, the investing blog with applications of Ein55 Styles of investing, sharing his experience extensively with over 1000 investment articles, 2 eBooks and over 500 investment courses using LOFTP (Level, Optimism, Fundamental, Technical, Personal Analysis) Strategies. He is a well sought after speaker in major trading firms and various investing seminars.

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Also, get free access to Dr. Tee’s private group here where he does frequent sharing.


InvestingNote is the first and largest social network for investors in Singapore. Find out more about us here.

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We’re here to keep you in touch with the latest investing & stock-related news, happenings and updates!

Investing Workshop: How to Find and Evaluate Value-Growth Stocks

Investing Workshop: How to Find and Evaluate Value-Growth Stocks

We’re having an upcoming workshop next week on How to Find and Evaluate Value-Growth Stocks.

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Join James Yeo (SmallCapAsia), one of our leading veteran community members and financial blogger as he offers his take and style on investing to both novice and seasoned investors alike.

**Use promo code: FIVEOFF to enjoy $5 OFF!

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Also: Did you know that Warren Buffett made 99% of his fortune after his 50th birthday?

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350% in 7 trading days (Guest Post)

350% in 7 trading days (Guest Post)

Since the time when I mentioned about Y-Ventures last week, it had multiplied by 350%. It was about 7 trading days since it hit the bottom at 3.8 cents on 31 March and 1 April 2019. I had mentioned in the article that it probably worth a punt on the stock.

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Brennen Pak is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as Brennen Pak, with more than 3000+ followers.

Y Ventures

Y Ventures

Given that it is a penny stock, the queue in the buy column at that time was very low at 10,000 to 20,000 shares. So, it meant that you could key to buy at a few bits lower than the trading price and, still, somebody was willing to sell the stock to you. However, when one were to look at the the transaction volume, it was another story. It was comparatively huge, perhaps 1 to 2 million shares showing the market was full of spot sellers willing to short the stock for any ready buyer. For the past one year, the share price has been beaten down and was close to 5% of the peak value by end March/early April. This could be one of the best chance to buy the stock at fire-sale price. It can only happen when the market thinks that the company is on the brink of bankruptcy or is widely expecting a rights issue. The company was listed on the stock exchange fairly recently, of less than 2 years and the stock price has been affected by the fallen crypto-currency joint venture and the accounting fiasco that it experienced last year.

With the quantity of shares issued at 200 million, it is possible to buy 0.1% of the company with only $8,000 at the share price of 4 cents. (The pre-IPO share quantity was 35 million from which about $7m was raised.) It means that at 4 cents, it is below the pre-IPO price valued at 5 cents. In effect, it is worth the risk to take the plunge. At most, if the company did go bust (touch wood), I would lost a few thousand dollars. The potential upside should be higher than the downside.

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Genting Singapore – My Thoughts On The IR Expansion Plan (Guest Post)

Genting Singapore – My Thoughts On The IR Expansion Plan (Guest Post)

This is a follow up from the previous article on Genting which I’ve written not too long ago. You can view them here if you have not done so.

The big news on Genting is finally out of the bag which we’ve been waiting for sometime.

 

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Brian Halim is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as 3Fs, with more than 1000+ followers.

Redevelopment of RWS Expansion

Resort World Sentosa Pte Ltd, a wholly owned subsidiary of Genting Singapore Ltd, has been granted approval for extension of their Integrated Resort over the next 5 years. This will see the existing IR Property expanded with approximately 50% of new gross floor area, adding 164,000 square metres of GFA of leisure and entertainment space. Development and enhancement of the integrated resorts will also include:

  • Expansion of Universal Studios Singapore, with 2 new highly themed and immersive environment – Minion Park and Super Nintendo World
  • Expansion of the S.E.A Aquarium to be re-branded as “Singapore Oceanarium”
  • Conversion of the Resorts World Theatre into a new Adventure Dining Playhouse
  • Expansion of in-resort accommodation with up to 1,100 more hotel rooms at a new waterfront lifestyle complex and within the central zone of the RWS
  • Enhanced waterfront promenade to be lined with restaurants and retail outlets
  • Expansion of MICE facilities to bring more events into Singapore
  • Development of Driverless Transport System which will enhance last-mile connectivity to RWS attractions

 

The development of the IR expansion will involve the intensification of land and a related grant of leasehold interest and license from SDC.

The redevelopment is expected to cost Genting approximately $4.5b over the next 5 years, and will be funded by internal working capitals and/or borrowings. 

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3 Dirt Cheap Companies With High Dividends

3 Dirt Cheap Companies With High Dividends

Everyone loves to shop for cheap stocks but wouldn’t it be fantastic that you buy dirt cheap stocks and yet still enjoy high dividends while waiting for your capital gains to come?

 

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We happen to find 3 stocks with such characteristics; check them out below:

This post was originally posted here. The writer is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as Smallcapasia, with more than 500 followers.

#1 Willas-Array Electronics Holdings Ltd (SGX: BDR)

Willas-Array with major markets in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan is principally engaged in the distribution of electronic components for use in various industries as well as the provision of engineering solutions.

It also has long standing relationships with 20 internationally reputable principle suppliers and carries a wide product mix over 10,000 product items and cater to over 3,000 customers.

The company has declared a final dividend of HK$0.42 on 30 May 2018 for the financial year of 2017. The dividend yield based on the price of SGD$0.595 equates to whopping 12%. The company has been distributing out dividends from 2015 to 2018 with an exception of 2016.

Year 2015 2016 2017 2018
Dividend Yield 6.43% 5.34% 12.05%

From a valuation stand point, the company is cheap valuing at P/E 5.04x and Price to Book Value of 0.44x.

That said, the high dividend might not be sustainable given the cashflow used in operating activities for the past 2 years (2017 & 2018) have been negative. Furthermore, the debt to equity ratio for the company is 2.11 and on the high side.

#2 Ossia International Ltd (SGX: 008)

Ossia has started as a footwear manufacturer but has grown into a regional distributor and retailer of lifestyle products in the Asia Pacific region.

The company has exclusive distribution, license and franchise rights for the Fashion apparels e.g. Elle, Bags/accessories e.g. Tumi, Hedgren etc and Sports apparels e.g. Columbia. The company also has a 19.8% stake in Pertama Holdings Pte Ltd which owns the Harvey Norman retails stores in Singapore and Malaysia.

The company has declared dividend of 4 cents on 31 July and 6 cents on 5th December 2018. Based on the current share price of $0.10, the dividend yield is a high 10%. The company has not distributed any dividends from 2015 to 2017 as net income is negative during this period.

Year 2015 2016 2017 2018
Dividend Yield 10%

The company is cheap valuing at P/E ratio of 4.72x and having a Price to Book ratio of 0.64x.

The company has no track record distributing dividend consistently and 2019 results has not been good so far. However, with the closure of under performing brands and disposal of properties, there might be a chance for the company to dish out yet another fat dividend.

#3 Serial System Ltd (S69)

Serial System is involved in the distribution of electronic and electrical components, and trading and distribution of fast-moving consumer goods, photographic and timepiece products.

The company has been consistently distributing cash dividends from 2015 to 2018 and the dividend yield ranges from 8.09% to 10.12% for the previous financial year.

Year 2015 2016 2017 2018
Dividend Yield 8.09% 4.76% 2.80% 10.12%

The company’s valuation is cheap with P/E ratio of 3.39x and a Price to Book ratio of 0.42x.

The cashflow from operating activities has been mixed for the past the few years. Moving forward, we are cautiously optimistic that the company will continue the dividend distributions but the dividend yield will vary depending on the company profit and free cashflow.

Once again, this article is a guest post and was originally posted on Smallcapasia‘s profile on InvestingNote. 

He also does premium analysis on a monthly basis, so check it out here.

Other than just stock discussions, we also have other channels like FX, Personal Finance discussions as we mentioned here.

Become a part of our community and also see what other investors are saying about the current market right now: (click on the view now button)

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InvestingNote is the first and largest social network for investors in Singapore. Find out more about us here.

Download our free app here:

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CityDevelopment (CDL) – Is There Value In This Company At $8.08? (Guest Post)

CityDevelopment (CDL) – Is There Value In This Company At $8.08? (Guest Post)

The revised cooling measures implemented in the middle of 2018 has finally pushed Q418 sales to a dip since Q217. It was only slightly down by 0.1% quarter on quarter and most of the decline was mainly due to landed sales so in all essence the demand for private property is still pretty buoyant.

With the introduction of the new cooling measures, which coincides along with the increase in tandem in interest rates, it brings the share price of City Development (CDL) down from the 52 week high of $13.6 to the last closing price of $8.08. (Jan 4th 2019)

Image result for city development limited

This post was originally posted here. The writer is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as 3Fs, with more than 1,300+ followers.

That is a very sharp decline and if you are an investor who buys at the peak and it can get very painful to see your portfolio colored in a patriotic sea of red.

But is there value now in the company after such a steep decline?

Cooling Measures In This Decade

For years since post gfc days when the first cooling measures was introduced in 2011, the demand for private property and residential has been pretty stable and moving. It never for once dent the expectations of the public that property prices are going to come down because of the measures put in place.

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Sunpower (5GD): Gathering steam | Current: $0.30 | Target: $0.45 | Upside: +50% (Guest Post)

Sunpower (5GD): Gathering steam | Current: $0.30 | Target: $0.45 | Upside: +50% (Guest Post)

This post was originally posted here. The writer is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as KennyChia, with 200+ followers.

Introduction

The recent 40+% sell-down of Sunpower caught my attention as it has always been on my watchlist due to its strategic positioning in the “Green” China economy. Upon further research, it seems that the event-driven selldown had nothing to do with the fundamentals of the company, which in fact were improving (increasing order book size, earnings, and operating cash flows). In order to keep this post brief, I have attached useful sources below that goes into detail the long-term investment merits of Sunpower as well as the recent events that transpired.

The Event – America 2030 Capital

In summary, Guo Hongxin (Founder & Executive Chairman) and Ma Ming (Executive Director), made personal loans by collateralizing their Sunpower shares (approx 1.89% of Sunpower’s total issued shares). The lender is America 2030 Capital. However, the collateral was allegedly forfeited as they had breached terms in the loan contract (this is currently being disputed between borrower and lender). Hence, America 2030 Capital took control of the collateralized Sunpower shares and supposedly sold in the open market, which caused the sell down.

Guo and Ma then obtained an interim injunction to prevent America 2030 “from selling or otherwise dealing in company shares which were used as collateral for personal loans”. They also “lodged a report with the Commercial Affairs Department of the Singapore Police Force over the loan agreement with America 2030”.

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3 Amazing Growth Stocks Flying Under The Radar (Guest Post)

3 Amazing Growth Stocks Flying Under The Radar (Guest Post)

This post was originally posted here. The writer is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as SmallCapAsia.

 

With a higher than average tolerance for risk, I’m a big fan of growth shares and you’ll find a number in my portfolio.

I’m looking at adding a couple more to my portfolio in the near future and three that I’m considering are listed below.

#1 United Global Limited (SGX: 43P)

United Global Limited is an independent lubricant manufacturer and trader providing a wide range of high quality and well-engineered lubricants.

The company produce their own in-house lubricant brands such as “United Oil”, “U Star Lube”, “Bell 1”, “HydroPure” and “Ichiro” as well as manufacturing lubricants for third-party principals’ brands.

United Global Limited serves clients mainly from the automotive, industrial, and marine industries. To date, the company has a wide distribution network covering over 30 countries.

Source: United Global Limited Annual Report 2017

United Global Limited revenue has been moving in sideways in the past 5 years. Despite that, its bottom line growth has delivered spectacular results. From FY2013 to FY2017, the company’s revenue was hovering around USD 100 million.

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Trade Tariffs Hit Asian and US Stock Markets Badly

Trade Tariffs Hit Asian and US Stock Markets Badly

But first, what are trade tariffs?

A tariff is basically a tax paid on imports and exports of goods and services.

An imposing tax on an imported product would cause its price to increase, which results in a decrease in demand for imported goods. In relation, the price of local products becomes lower to the consumer.

The US Total Imports vs Dutiable Imports from 1821 to 2016 can be seen below:

The current US deficit as of 2017 is $500 billion. The US imports from China about four times as much as it sells to that country in goods as services, leaving Washington more room than Beijing to tax a greater share of bilateral trade. The U.S. trade deficit with China was $375 billion in 2017. The trade deficit exists because U.S. exports to China were only $130 billion while imports from China were $506 billion. The United States imports consumer electronics, clothing, and machinery from China. A lot of the imports are from U.S. manufacturers that send raw materials to China for low-cost assembly. Once shipped back to the United States, they are considered imports.

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