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Possible Near-Term Unit Price Movements of Singapore REITs with Retail Malls in its Portfolio (guest post)

Possible Near-Term Unit Price Movements of Singapore REITs with Retail Malls in its Portfolio (guest post)

Footfall to retail malls (especially those located in the CBD area) have taken a beating since Phase 2 (Heightened Alert) came into effect from 16 May 2021. Apart from the “no dining in” restriction, some of the more notable measures include group size being reduced to just groups of 2, and that working from home is once again the default.

Today (09 June 2021), there was an article in The New Paper which talked about the current situation, and difficulties faced by retailers – you can read the article in full here – “Retail stores take a beating as footfall slows to a trickle“.

However, it’s not all doom and gloom. As I am writing this post, I note that the number of community cases have come down once again (there are just 3 new cases in the community, with one of them in the workers’ dormitory being reported yesterday, 08 June 2021.) With the number of community cases heading down once again to single digits, my opinion is that it is highly likely that some of the movement restrictions will be relaxed when the Phase 2 (Heightened Alert) ends this Sunday, 13 June 2021.

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Lim Jun Yuan is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with a username known as @ljunyuan and has close to 2,000 followers.

I am of the opinion that any relaxation in movement restrictions could benefit the retail industries, and hence REITs with retail properties in the portfolio could see their unit prices going up in the near-term. There are 6 REITs in Singapore with their portfolio consisting of retail REITs. They are: CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (SGX:C38U), Frasers Centrepoint Trust (SGX:J69U), Mapletree Commercial Trust (SGX:N2IU), Starhill Global REIT (SGX:P40U), SPH REIT (SGX:SK6U), as well as Suntec REIT (SGX:T82U).

Funan mall reopens with swankier vibe after major S$560m, 3-year renovation, Real Estate - THE BUSINESS TIMES

In this post, you will find my technical analysis on the 6 REITs – particularly how their unit prices may move in the near-term (bullish as well as bearish scenarios), along with some of the major support and resistance points I’ve identified you may like to take note of.

The technical indicators I’ve used are as follows:

  • Moving average on a weekly timeframe – 20-day (in dark green), 50-day (in light green), 100-day (in orange), 150-day (in yellow), and 200-day (in red)
  • Bollinger band on a weekly timeframe – both the upper and lower bands in light blue
  • MACD on a daily timeframe
  • Stochastic on a daily timeframe

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TECFAST – An Almost Guaranteed 80% Upside?(Guestpost)

TECFAST – An Almost Guaranteed 80% Upside?(Guestpost)

TECFAST (0084) : An Almost Guaranteed 80% Upside?

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Teoh Tian Heng is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with a username known as @thteoh58.

 

Dear investors, if you are reading the article, that means that you surely are not settling with a mere 10% to 15% rate of return per annum for your investments. I mean, who does?

Anyway, the article today will show you a qualitative and quantitative study on the business of TECFAST as well as the finances, as to how this company could be almost guaranteed to deliver a MINIMAL of 60% upside.

Qualitative Studies

TECFAST (or the “Company”) had an elaborate plan as to what, and when to venture into the oil and gas business. Dated 6th November 2020, we noticed that there is an LOI between Fast Energy Sdn Bhd (“FESB”), a wholly owned subsidiary of TECFAST and Zillion Oil Timor LDA. This marks the very beginning of journey for TECFAST to enjoy the recovery of busy offshore activities as well as the recovering oil price.

However, the LOI does not show any materialized information. It was until 15th March 2021 that the Company starts to deliver on what they promised.

Dated 15th March 2021, the Company had entered into a supply agreement between FESB and Wise Marine Pte Ltd (“Wise Marine”) – one of the largest ship management services players in Singapore, with a total contract value of RM2,222,856,000.00. With this size of a contract, it is normal for investor to treat it as some “not realistic”. Hence, the reflect in share price upon the announcement.

A deeper study into a contract would note that FESB would supply up to 30,000 metric tonnes of low sulphur fuel oil, low sulphur marine gasoil and high sulphur fuel oil per month to Wise Marine. The marine gasoil or fuel oil are collectively known as Marine Gas Oil (“MGO”). MGO are mainly used to power offshore transportation vehicles, such as oil tank, vessels, bunker ship and so forth. It is also interesting to point out that whatever FESB was selling to Wise Marine are based on a certain premium on top of the costs, are more commonly known as the “Cost-Plus” basis. This does not mean that FESB will never suffer losses, but as long as MGO prices are stable or on an uptrend, TECFAST as the holding company, would be the beneficiary of it.

A reference on Singapore Mogas 95 Unleaded Futures could see that since July 2020, the prices of MGOs are increasing on a steadfast trend.

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Patience Is Required For Alibaba And JD.com (guestpost)

Patience Is Required For Alibaba And JD.com (guestpost)

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Brian Halim is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with a username known as @3Fs and has 2,000+ followers.

I thought I’ll pen down my thoughts after receiving a number of emails this week from various sources asking for guidance on two big China cap names – Alibaba and JD.com – both of which have seen shares plummeting each day for the past few consecutive weeks.

Many readers would also know that I own Alibaba shares from my last monthly update and have also recently written a piece on JD analysis so it’s something which I’ll walk the talk.

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE: Baba)

alibaba-image-blog

Let’s start with Baba first.

This is probably the most hated large cap company right now in the entire planet.

The entire saga started when the intention to list Ant IPO was shelved and the State Administration for Market Regulators went to investigate the entire company’s holding structure.

Since then, the State of Administration has concluded by fining the company US$2.8billion – which the company chose to take in the Q4 FY2021 report announced last night.

The entire saga has shed the company 37% (more than 1/3) of its market cap from the peak – which in my opinion is a bit overdone. The RSI indicator confirmed the same by showing that the counter is currently in oversold territory.

If we look at the results announced yesterday, total revenue for the quarter was RMB 717 billion, an increase of 41% year on year.

The growth was driven by robust revenue growth of the China commerce retail business (Taobao, Tmall) and the continued growth of its cloud computing business.

Total adjusted EBITDA was RMB 170 billion, which is an increase of 24% year on year. There was the one-off adjustment from the anti-monopoly fine which was taken in the quarter, so it pushed the net comprehensive income for the quarter to negative loss territory.

Cash position remains solid at RMB 479 million with free cash flow coming in strongly at 32% to RMB 173 million.

During the conference call held yesterday, management has reiterated its intention to continue investing in R&D and also new seed of businesses such as Taobao Deals (which aims for the lowest of the market segment tiers), Taobao Grocery, Freshippo supermarket (which is the community marketplace business) and new features on the core platform such as Taobao Live and short-form video. The company is also enhancing its logistics arms, CaiNiao to give its competitors such as JD a good run for their money.

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EC World REIT’s Q1 FY2021 Results (guestpost)

EC World REIT’s Q1 FY2021 Results (guestpost)

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Lim Jun Yuan is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with a username known as @ljunyuan and has close to 2,000 followers.

China-based logistics REIT, EC World REIT (SGX:BWCU) released its financial results for the first quarter of the financial year 2021 ended 31 March 2021 after market hours yesterday (11 May 2021.)

The REIT is one of the few that has continued to report its full financial results, along with payout a distribution to its unitholders on a quarterly basis – both of which are something I appreciate as a unitholder.

In this post, you will find key highlights about the logistics REIT’s latest financial results, debt and portfolio occupancy profile, and distribution payouts, along with my personal thoughts to share.

Let’s begin…

Financial Results (Q1 FY2020 vs. Q1 FY2021)

Q1 FY2020 Q1 FY2021 % Variance
Gross Revenue
(S$’mil)		 $23.5m $30.8m +30.9%
Property Operating
Expenses (S$’mil)		 $2.4m $3.1m +30.3%
Net Property
Income (S$’mil)		 $21.1m $27.7m +30.9%
Distributable
Income to
Unitholders (S$’mil)		 $9.3m $12.4m +32.9%

From the table above, you can tell that the REIT’s latest quarter results was an improved one across the board.

The improvements in its gross revenue and net property income can be attributed to the absence of rental rebates given out to tenants to help them mitigate the negative impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic in the same time period last year, along with the Chinese Renminbi strengthening by 3.5%.

In-line with the improvements in its gross revenue and net property income, the REIT’s distributable income to unitholders also increased by a similar percentage.

Debt Profile (Q4 FY2020 vs. Q1 FY2021)

Next, let us take a look at the REIT’s latest debt profile (recorded for the first quarter of FY2021 ended 31 March 2021), compared against that recorded in the previous quarter three months ago (i.e. Q4 FY2020 ended 31 December 2020) to find out whether it has improved, remained consistent, or deteriorated:

Q4 FY2020 Q1 FY2021
Aggregate Leverage
(%)		 38.1% 38.3%
Interest Coverage
Ratio (times)		 2.62x 2.79x
Average Term to
Debt Maturity (years)		 1.6 years 1.4 years
Average Cost of
Debt (%)		 4.2% 4.1%

My Observations: Personally, I felt that the REIT’s debt profile for the current quarter under review, compared to the previous quarter 3 months ago, was a mixed bag – first, the positives (in my opinion): a slight decrease in its average cost of debt, along with its interest coverage increasing slightly; the negatives: its aggregate leverage edging up slightly, along with its average term to debt maturity (which is now at 1.4 years, from 1.6 years in the previous quarter.) …

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Which Singapore-Listed Bank Had the Most Resilient Set of Q1 FY2021 Results? (guest post)

Which Singapore-Listed Bank Had the Most Resilient Set of Q1 FY2021 Results? (guest post)

Which Singapore-Listed Bank Had the Most Resilient Set of Q1 FY2021 Results?

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Lim Jun Yuan is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with a username known as @ljunyuan and has close to 2,000 followers.

All 3 Singapore-listed banks (in DBS, UOB, and OCBC) have reported their business updates for the first quarter of the financial year 2021 ended 31 March 2021.

As a shareholder of all 3 banks, I have reviewed and posted a summary when their results were released. In case you’ve missed out, you can find them below:dbs-bank-blog-imageDBS: https://www.thesingaporeaninvestor.sg/2021/05/04/dbs-group-holdings-q1-fy2021-business-updates-key-highlights-and-my-thoughts/

uob-bank-blog-imageUOB: https://www.thesingaporeaninvestor.sg/2021/05/06/my-review-of-uobs-latest-q1-fy2021-business-update/

Views of OCBC Bank Branches Ahead Of EarningsOCBC: https://www.thesingaporeaninvestor.sg/2021/05/07/overseas-chinese-banking-corporations-q1-fy2020-business-update-key-highlights-and-thoughts/

In this post, I’ll be putting the 3 banks’ key financial results, as well as its key financial ratios side-by-side to find out which one had the strongest set of results for the current quarter under review. Also, you’ll learn about which bank is currently the ‘cheapest’ based on its current valuations.

Let’s begin…

Key Financial Results (Q1 FY2020 vs. Q1 FY2021)

In this section, you will find a comparison of the 3 banks’ key financial results for the first quarter of the financial year 2021 ended 31 March 2021, compared against that reported in the same time period last year – i.e. first quarter of the financial year 2020 ended 31 March 2020: …

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1st Quarter 2021 Report. Happy 5 year anniversary (guest post)

1st Quarter 2021 Report. Happy 5 year anniversary (guest post)

1st Quarter 2021 Report. Happy 5 year anniversary

YTD Performance: +28.45%
Performance since Inception: +4600%(?) There are some price data missing so the app calculated those with just last transaction price i made. The time weighted gain probably is not that accurate.

This post was originally posted here. The writer @vincentwong10, is a community member and blogger on InvestingNote with 700 followers.

Image 1Image 2

It’s 5 years already. What a fruitful journey. I did quite well so far fortunately.
Let’s do little recap…Started investing in Singapore stocks and some US stocks. Had a wonderful starting year with triple digits returns every year, whether it’s bull or bear (only 2018 so far) markets. End of 2018 start to focus on HK listed companies. I might’ve jinx them that their index fell from peak 33000 when I enter to 28000 in the mist of bull market. Luckily, I did fine with all the riots, trade war, and virus.

I’ve bought a total of 28 companies so far in this 5 year. 4 of them are unprofitable which range from -7% to -34%, they are TianLi Education, Empire Snack, Fuyao, and Pinduoduo. Funny thing is, all of them would be very profitable if I had held them till today. Some were mistakes, some were sold because of opportunity cost which turned out great.

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A Look into DBS Group Holdings’ Q4 and FY2020 Results (Guest Post)

A Look into DBS Group Holdings’ Q4 and FY2020 Results (Guest Post)

DBS Group Holdings (SGX:D05) is the first of the three Singapore-listed banks to release its results for the fourth quarter, as well as for the financial year 2020 ended 31 December 2020 early this morning (10 February 2021) – the other two banks will be releasing its results on the final week of February (OCBC on 24th February, and UOB on 25 February – both before market hours.)

In my post today, let us take an in-depth look into DBS’ latest ‘report card’ – particularly its key financial results, key financial ratios, as well as its dividend payouts to shareholders, along with my personal opinions as a shareholder of Singapore’s biggest bank to share.

Image result for dbs

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Lim Jun Yuan is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with a username known as @ljunyuan and has close to 2,000 followers.

Key Financial Results (Q4 FY2019 vs. Q4 FY2020, and FY2019 vs. FY2020)

In this section, you will find the bank’s results on a quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) basis (i.e. Q4 FY2019 vs. Q4 FY2020), as well as on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis (i.e. FY2019 vs. FY2020):

Q4 FY2019 vs. Q4 FY2020:

Q4 FY2019 Q4 FY2020 % Variance
– Net Interest
Income (S$’mil)		 $2,426m $2,120m -12.6%
– Net Fee & Commission
Income (S$’mil)		 $741m $747m +0.8%
– Other Non-Interest
Income (S$’mil)		 $294m $396m +34.7%
Total Income
(S$’mil)		 $3,461m $3,263m -5.7%
Total Expenses
(S$’mil)		 $1,600m $1,580m -1.3%
Net Profit
(S$’mil)		 $1,508m $1,012m -32.9%

Total income (which consisted of 3 components: net interest income, net fee and commission income, as well as other non-interest income) fell 5.7% on a q-o-q basis to S$3,263m, as a decline in its net interest income (due to a 37 basis point q-o-q drop in its net interest margin to 1.49%), cushioned by an increase in its net fee and commission income (attributed by an improvement in its wealth management fees), as well as in its other non-interest income (as a result of an increase in its trading income.) …

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The Story of Short Squeezes Repeats Itself – Volkswagen (2008) and Gamestop (2021) (guest post)

The Story of Short Squeezes Repeats Itself – Volkswagen (2008) and Gamestop (2021) (guest post)

John Keynes once said that the market can stay irrational longer than most retail investors can stay solvent.

Well, we’ll add hedge funds and institutional funds to that lists.

In case you have not heard of the hottest town talks surrounding the market in the recent days, shares of several counters (I purposely mentioned counters rather than companies because it doesn’t matter anymore, they are treated as a pawn right now) such as Gamestop $GME, AMC, BB, Nokia, KOSS have rocketed to escalating levels due to strong ongoing retail demand pushing up the stock.

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Brian Halim is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with a username known as @3Fs and has 2261 followers.

games

Yes, you heard it right.

It’s not big institutional controlling it (though I would argue there might be small hedge funds perhaps who are participating in the party), but rather retailers who lurked around forums such as Reddits, and StockTwits nests and consolidate their purchasing power by pushing up the price.

Now, let’s just take Gamestop for instance.

The company has been a target for short-sellers for a number of years now, and the amount of short-selling volume amounted to more than 140% of the entire floating shares available. The company has started its buyback program for a number of years in the past and therefore has only some 70m floating shares lurking around.

If you theoretically take the number of forumers – Reddit/wallstreetbets/StockTwits users/followers, which is likely to amount to more than 20m, you can essentially have a coordinated orchestra to move the markets. …

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Top 5 Stock Picks to Avoid in 2021 for buy and hold Investors (guest post)

Top 5 Stock Picks to Avoid in 2021 for buy and hold Investors (guest post)

A Happy New Year to all investors,

Here is my top 5 pick for stocks to AVOID for buy and hold.

Image may contain: sky, text that says 'TOP 5 STOCKS TO AVOID IN 2021 FOR BUY AND HOLD INVESTORS in InvestingNote'

This post was originally posted here by one of our community members. 

1)$SIA(C6L.SI)

The aviation industry is going through a hard reset.  While vaccines are starting to be available, it will take many many more months (infection number still raising)  for all countries to gain herd immunity.  A likelihood of SIA doing more rounds of fund raising which will dilute existing shareholders.

2) $First Reit(AW9U.SI)

For REITs that depend on master leases it is vital for investors to check the financial strength of the counter party.  If the tenant has weak financials doesn’t matter how the lease is restructured or how much $$ the REIT raise.  A responsible REIT manager will know when it is time to liquidate the properties and return $$ to shareholders before more value destruction happens. …

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6 Key Points About iFAST (after losing bid for digital banking licence) (guest post)

6 Key Points About iFAST (after losing bid for digital banking licence) (guest post)

On Friday evening, MAS announced that it will award full digital banking licences to Internet firm Sea and the Grab-Singtel consortium, as well as DWB licences to China’s Ant Group and a consortium led by Greenland Financial. The iFast’s consortium, with China’s Yillion Group and Hande Group, fails bid for digital wholesale bank (DWB) licence and its share price is down 30% today.

Singapore to have 4 digital banks, with Grab-Singtel and Sea getting digital full bank licences, Banking News & Top Stories - The Straits Times
screen-shot-2020-12-07-at-5-59-36-pm

This post was originally posted here. The writer, SweeSwee is a veteran community member on InvestingNote, with a username known as @Sweeswee and has 300+ followers.

 

1. To say the least, I am very disappointed that iFast did not get the WDB license.

2. While I understand that Ant was a firm favorite and they won, I don’t quite understand why only 2 WDB licenses were awarded when they had planned for up to 3. Did iFast fail to even meet the WDB requirements? I thought its unlikely since Lim CC would be experienced enough to satisfy all the requirements before bidding. Maybe MAS wants the company to already have at least S$100m in cash now? iFast’s thinking was that it could easily raise S$100m from consortium partners and the market if it wins.

Also, I scratch my head why the consortium led by Greenland could win. Greenland’s parent company is among the biggest property developers in China but it is also heavily indebted, highly geared. I believe its financial arm also does not have much track record in the finance business, especially in South East Asia.

Why give it to Greenland? Why MAS does not award to one of the biggest, best run, most promising home-grown fintech companies in Singapore?

3. To be fair to iFast, part of the reasons why its share price soared in the last few months was because its existing businesses have done very well. The business units continued to register strong growth and higher profits throughout the Covid-19 pandemic. AUA continues to rise to record levels quarter after quarter.

Indeed, it also just won licenses to operate its platform for stocks trading in Malaysia and to operate as a private fund manager in China. Both these new business lines will commence operations in Q1 2021 and start to bring more revenues for FY21. …

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