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The Story of Short Squeezes Repeats Itself – Volkswagen (2008) and Gamestop (2021) (guest post)

The Story of Short Squeezes Repeats Itself – Volkswagen (2008) and Gamestop (2021) (guest post)

John Keynes once said that the market can stay irrational longer than most retail investors can stay solvent.

Well, we’ll add hedge funds and institutional funds to that lists.

In case you have not heard of the hottest town talks surrounding the market in the recent days, shares of several counters (I purposely mentioned counters rather than companies because it doesn’t matter anymore, they are treated as a pawn right now) such as Gamestop $GME, AMC, BB, Nokia, KOSS have rocketed to escalating levels due to strong ongoing retail demand pushing up the stock.

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Brian Halim is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with a username known as @3Fs and has 2261 followers.

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Yes, you heard it right.

It’s not big institutional controlling it (though I would argue there might be small hedge funds perhaps who are participating in the party), but rather retailers who lurked around forums such as Reddits, and StockTwits nests and consolidate their purchasing power by pushing up the price.

Now, let’s just take Gamestop for instance.

The company has been a target for short-sellers for a number of years now, and the amount of short-selling volume amounted to more than 140% of the entire floating shares available. The company has started its buyback program for a number of years in the past and therefore has only some 70m floating shares lurking around.

If you theoretically take the number of forumers – Reddit/wallstreetbets/StockTwits users/followers, which is likely to amount to more than 20m, you can essentially have a coordinated orchestra to move the markets.

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12.12 Special Promo: The TAP Method: An Analyst’s Essentials by TradingAnalystPlaybook (TAP)

12.12 Special Promo: The TAP Method: An Analyst’s Essentials by TradingAnalystPlaybook (TAP)

Been missing out on hot, growth US stocks like PLTR, ABNB & NET? You might wanna see this.

 

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LIVE Market Commentary: The US Election

LIVE Market Commentary: The US Election

Join us for this LIVE Market Commentary as the US Election is about to happen!

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Hosted by Li Guang Sheng, one of our top veteran community members, investment specialist, trading representative from PhillipCapital.

In the last 2016 US election during a seminar, Guang Sheng forecasted that Trump would become president based on several key factors.

Key things that will be addressed during this webinar:

✔ Trump vs Biden: who’s likely to win?
✔ If Trump wins again, what stocks and sectors to look at?
✔ If Trump loses, what will happen to the stock markets?

US Election only happens every 4 years. Don’t miss this webinar!

Register now!

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InvestingNote is the first and largest social network for investors in Singapore. Find out more about us here.

Download our free app here:

apple android

Also, join our telegram channel here: t.me/investingnoteofficial

We’re here to keep you in touch with the latest investing & stock-related news, happenings, and updates!

New Subscription Launch: The TAP Method: An Analyst’s Essentials

New Subscription Launch: The TAP Method: An Analyst’s Essentials

It’s currently earnings season for many US companies which this subscription providers have been monitoring. (scroll down to understand more)

The TAP Method: An Analyst’s Essentials is a new subscription service, released by Trading Analyst Playbook (TAP) in the midst of a currently volatile market, catering to those of us who recognise the enormous potential of the US market and want to take full advantage of it even in roller-coaster periods.

 

Here are some recent case studies:

Here are 2 Trade Alerts that were sent to Tappers in the past few months. As predicted, the returns were remarkable! Have a look for yourself:

Case Study 1: Tesla Inc ($TSLA)

Trade Alert sent to Tappers on 12 August 2020. With their Trend-Following Approach, this trade has yielded 62% (Best Price) within 16 Trading Days.

Case Study 2: Beyond Meat ($BYND)

Trade Alert sent to Tappers on 30 August 2020. This trade yielded 30% (Best Price) within 30 Trading Days. TAP also shared possible fundamental factors that might drive it higher.

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What You Need to Know about US’ First $2 Trillion Company – Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) (Guest Post)

What You Need to Know about US’ First $2 Trillion Company – Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) (Guest Post)

Last Friday (21 August), I conducted a simple poll on The Singaporean Investor’s Telegram broadcast group (you can join the group here to receive the latest updates) to find out whether or not you will be interested to read about company analyses of US-listed companies written in “The Singaporean Investor” way, similar to my company analyses of Singapore-listed companies. A huge majority voted in favour of it so here I am!

First Apple store to float on water off Singapore's Marina Bay Sands

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Lim Jun Yuan is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as ljunyuan and has 1241  followers.

The first US-listed company I am going to write about today is the first US$2 trillion company (in terms of its market capitalisation) in the United States – Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL). You can read the news report by New York Times about it here.

Another news about the company to highlight (in case you’re not aware) is that it will be doing a four-for-one stock split (meaning if you hold one share of Apple, after the share split, you will own 4 shares of the company; at the same time, the share price of the company will be divided by 4 after the share split), and shares will be trading at the new split-adjusted price from 31 August 2020.

In this post, I will be sharing with you all the researches I have done about the company – including a brief introduction about the company, along with its financial performances, debt profile, and dividend payouts over a 5-year period (between FY2015 and FY2019.) On top of that, you will also find a summary of the company’s performances for the first 9 months of the current financial year so far (the company has a financial year end on the last Saturday of September.) Finally, I will also be looking at the company’s 5-year historical valuations and compare it against the company’s current valuations (based on its current share price) to determine if the share price of Apple Inc is considered to be trading at a discount or at a premium currently.

Are you ready? Let’s begin…

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Weaker Dollar Gives Hope to Small Cap, Value and Ex-US Global Stocks (Guest Post)

Weaker Dollar Gives Hope to Small Cap, Value and Ex-US Global Stocks (Guest Post)

The US dollar weakens. This is because a vast sums of money is pumped into the main street and financial markets to prevent a financial calamity.

There are some possible repercussions. These are possibilities and not definite:

  • There are evidence to suggest the weakness in the US dollar is gonna last longer
  • Whether there is inflation or weakness in the currency would depend on each country’s central bank’s response
  • Equity markets remains more attractive than bonds
  • Ex US markets looked more attractive than US
  • Cyclical stocks, value, and small caps look to do better in this climate based on past data.

Market Sentiments Remain Surprisingly Bearish

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Kyith Ng is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as Kyith and has 1051  followers.

Even after the run-up in market indexes, according to the widely followed AAII survey, sentiments are pretty bearish still.

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US And China Trade War Escalates. What Are The Implications?

US And China Trade War Escalates. What Are The Implications?

What is the Situation?

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On Friday, 23rd August, Trump said in a tweet that U.S. companies “are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China, including bringing your companies HOME and making your products in the USA. ” It was not immediately clear under what authority or how the president could implement such orders. On the same day, China announced plans to impose additional duties on $75 billion worth of American goods on Sept. 1 and Dec. 15. In response, U.S President Donald Trump tweeted later that day his administration would also raise tariffs on $550 billion of Chinese imports. The latest round of tariff announcements in the last few days means that by the end of the year, essentially all Chinese goods exported to the U.S. will be subject to duties based on sources from CNBC.

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US And HK Stock Markets Outlook 2019 Webinar

US And HK Stock Markets Outlook 2019 Webinar

US Trade War. HK protests. Looming recession. What entails for the US and HK stock markets right now?

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We’ve invited a special host @ValueInvestAsia Stanley Lim, CoFounder of ValueInvestAsia.com and Co-author of “Value Investing In Asia: The Definitive Guide To Investing In Asia”, to talk about the current market conditions and also to answer any questions you have relating to the US and HK stock markets.

So for the week, from 19 August (Monday) to 25 August (Sunday) 2019, simply leave your questions in the link below for Stanley to answer in his upcoming webinar. His webinar will be broadcasted on our platform on 29th August, Thursday.

So, go on, ask your burning questions on US and HK markets here!


InvestingNote is the first and largest social network for investors in Singapore. Find out more about us here.

Download our free app here:

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S&P500 has slumped 13.7% in Dec, largest percentage fall since 1931! Has the bull market ended? (Guest Post)

S&P500 has slumped 13.7% in Dec, largest percentage fall since 1931! Has the bull market ended? (Guest Post)

This post was originally posted here. The writer is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with username known as el15, with 200+ followers.

Image result for bull market

Dear all

After hitting an intra-day high of 2,941 on 21 Sep 2018, S&P500 has tumbled 17.9% or 525 points to close 2,416 on 21 Dec 2018. In fact, S&P500 has just logged the worst monthly performance in Dec since 1931! Dow has also fallen 3,535 points from the intraday high of 25,980 on 3 Dec 2018 and 4,507 points from the intraday high of 26,952 on 3 Oct 2018. What is happening? Is Armageddon coming?

Most things have not changed since 21 Sep, except for…

In Sep, when S&P500 hit 2,940, the usual concerns were also there, namely trade tensions; U.S. 10Y treasury yields above 3%; Brexit; concerns on Europe; peak in earnings growth in U.S. market; slowing global growth etc. Since then, nothing much has changed except that

a) Part of the yield curve has inverted

On 3 Dec 2018, the yield curve for U.S. 3Y note and U.S. 5Y note inverted. According to the chief economist of North America at The Conference Board, he wrote in an article posted on MarketWatch 10 Dec 2018 that from the time that the above yield curve inverts, a recession typically starts from nine to 69 months, with an average of 27 months (i.e. more than 2 years).

For the more closely watched indicator i.e. the spread between the 10-year note and the 2-year note, it is still positive and not inverted. Although the spread between the 10-year note and the 2-year note has been narrowing / flattening, some strategists have noted that a flat curve can last for years and the economy can still be strong. According to an article by BMO Capital Markets in June 2018, BMO found that the S&P 500 has appreciated an average 12.3% when the yield curve was flattening vis-à-vis a 7.9% gain amid a steepening yield curve for all periods since 1980. In addition, BMO found that the S&P 500 can still rise an average 14.3% during the later stages of flattening cycles (from 50 bps to 0 bps).

b) U.S. and China have agreed on a trade truce for 90 days

U.S. and China have agreed on a “cease fire of sorts” on trade for 90 days. Notwithstanding the arrest of Huawei’s CFO in Canada and other negative headline news, it seems that China and U.S are still making some progress on the trade front post the dinner between President Trump and President Xi (i.e. it seems relatively better now than in Sep on the trade front)

c) U.S. 10Y treasury yields have dropped from >3% to 2.79%

U.S. 10Y treasury yields have dropped from >3% in Sep 2018 to 2.79% on 21 Dec 2018. This seems to be a net positive for stocks as this may reduce long term borrowing costs and increases the appeal of equities vis-à-vis bonds.

Has the bull market ended?

Nasdaq has slipped into a bear market with the 3% drop on last Fri. Most readers will be wondering whether the 9 or 10 year bull market has ended.

According to most strategists, the equity bull market typically ends when some of the conditions happen. For simplicity, I only list three conditions below (i.e. the list is not exhaustive).

a) Inverted yield curve

As per above, the yield curve is flattening but has not inverted yet. According to Blackstone, they do not believe that the yield curve is going to invert soon.

b) Negative earnings growth

It is common knowledge that 2018 likely marks the peak in earnings growth for U.S. corporates. However, it is noteworthy that a peak in earnings growth in 2018 does not necessarily mean a decline in earnings in 2019. For CY 2019, based on Factset, analysts estimate earnings growth of 8.3% and revenue growth of 5.5%.

Chart 1: Earnings and revenue growth in 2019

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