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Catch the Replay: Trading Insights From Tournament Champions: Accuracy In Navigating Current Market Conditions

Catch the Replay: Trading Insights From Tournament Champions: Accuracy In Navigating Current Market Conditions

‌The BearProwl is the grand winner of this year’s trading tournament, with 205.16% return in just 3 weeks!

‌The BearProwl is a financial blogger and a veteran community member – he also won 1st Position in both the SG Active Trading Tournament 2020 and SGX Bull Charge Stock Challenge 2018.

‌He shared how he navigates the current market conditions and how he manages his trades, along with our 2nd & 3rd winners, @aalexyeo @tommytalim

Here are the winners of all the prizes:

‌1. Make-A-Trade Winners:

Selection based on participants who made at least 3x trades. More trades, more chances! $30 Capitaland Vouchers For Every Winner!

@Ryansoh31 @notzamanda @tayboonchye @lljh97 @Eugene239 @precisionx @asherteh0 @nkcworld @chandramalar @mjeffrey @tanangelina2 @ioozx2 @nghooi1234 @aileron @Li_Guang_Sheng @davidchow0 @puisanchin @DpsDanky @zzxiaoboizz @javtuck @sutowi @helena0001 @edwinrawrrr
@williamtong @joshuatan @Agk @partyboy @LuciusNeo @jasmine90 @Killerks 

2. Registration Prizes Winners

  • 1x Apple TV 4K setup – @gregorylim2 
  • 1x Samsung 27″ Essential Curved Monitor – @Anfield888 
  • 1x Nintendo Switch OLED console – @Acerlable 
  • Year-End Giveaway 2D1N Staycation Grand Winner – @ltpin78 

‌Congratulations to all these lucky winners and thank you everyone for participating in our trading tournament this year!

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My Views: Is Mapletree Industrial Trust at 6.2% a Safe Investment Now?

My Views: Is Mapletree Industrial Trust at 6.2% a Safe Investment Now?

I’m starting to get excited again over Mapletree Industrial Trust (MIT).

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Willie Keng is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with a username known as @Willie and has close to 120 followers.

Okay last time, I told you I wouldn’t buy industrial REITs. And in fact, Diligence members would know I sold off my Ascendas REIT and Mapletree Industrial Trust shares earlier this year – both industrial REITs weren’t supposed to be trading at such low dividend yield.

Why I sold off MIT shares last time

The thing is, at one point, when MIT shares traded at S$3.24, its dividend yield was only a pitiful 3.8%. I mean, that’s ridiculous.

If you remembered, many industrial properties in Singapore sit on land with only a 30 years lease. This means after the land leases runs out, JTC claims back the land, along with the property.

This also means MIT has to raise capital (from rights issues) again, in order to replace or extend the life of these properties.

That’s why, I believe MIT – along with other industrial REITs – should trade at a much higher dividend yield. This compensates money needed to replace these older, industrial assets with short land leases.

That’s also why, I believe industrial properties are different from retail and commercial properties.

Well today, the story has changed, which I’ll get into in a bit.

So far, MIT shares have fallen 32% from its peak in July 2020 — trading close to its NAV, or book value.

Let’s quickly get up to speed about MIT.

Mapletree Industrial Trust — a dividend pumper?

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Sucker Rally?

Sucker Rally?

Now’s a good time to take some profits.

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Willie Keng is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with a username known as @Willie and has close to 120 followers.

Here’s why.

As far as I know about market rallies, my instinct tells me the rally will continue to go on.

I mean, money is flowing, people think we have seen the bottom.

Especially when you’re getting headlines like “Stocks Have Already Bottomed. How We know?”

The Dow has sneaked past the bear’s eyes.

And it’s already up 19%, from the bottom in earlier September. The S&P 500 is up 12% over the same period.

The Dow could possibly go back up past 36,000. The S&P 500 could possibly go back up past 4,000. But don’t take my word for it. I’m just plucking numbers from thin air.

I mean, what do I know about market predictions? I only (try to) collect great businesses.

What’s driving this bear market rally

First, in yesterday’s meeting, the Fed said they could slow down rate hikes (but more on that later), which is a good thing since this tells me actual inflation could have slowed down.

US mortgage rates have fallen, and other currencies are strengthening against the USD, which means capital is flowing back to emerging markets — or riskier assets.

I mean, the market can go from believing nothing will go wrong to believing that nothing will go right, in a flash. That’s Mr. Market. Well, at least that’s my reality of Mr. Market.

The kind of delusional optimism that will continue to push the rally on.

Or what it’s called – a sucker’s rally.

The same delusional optimism that a bold investor once said Tesla could reach $4,000 per shares in 2025.

Market cycles tend to average 33% down before they recover, some could take longer, some could be shorter – and we still have more room to go.
There are still places where they have yet to sort things out.

The UK is still in some sort of recession — fighting inflation and dealing with their fiscal deficits.

China is still dancing along theput your one leg in, one leg outcovid policy. In the most recent news, Shanghai has asked new arrivals to stay from public places for five days, starting today.

That means, people going to the 26 million populous city are barred for close to a week, including restaurants, shopping malls, supermarkets and even internet cafes.

Then, the war in Ukraine still rages on.

But what’s crucial here, tech companies, being the broader part of the S&P 500 index, have shown stunning numbers of job cuts:

  • Meta Platforms: 11,000 layoffs
  • Snap: 1,200 layoffs
  • Twitter: slashed by half
  • Alphabet: plans for 10,000 job cuts
  • Amazon: plans for 10,000 job cuts
  • Also, Apple has also stopped hiring

The thing is, when global companies freeze headcounts and cut budgets, these big companies are just getting started. What about the small businesses that drive the bulk of economies?

When businesses project gloomy time ahead, they cut spending. For consumers?

Instead of buying that thirteenth fridge, perhaps you might stick to just one.

Or perhaps just grab dinner from the hawker stall downstairs, instead of dining at Haidilao.

Well, it’s what’s looming on the horizon that could catch almost everyone by surprise.

“Most Federal Reserve officials say slower rate hike pace appropriate ‘soon’”

That’s what I got from this morning’s paper.

I wouldn’t take this as a sign of renewed optimism. At the end, it’s not how fast or how slow interest rates go up.

And who knows, the Fed could have rates go beyond 5%, since rate hikes have toppled the yield curve to a shape that doesn’t make sense for any bond analyst.

When the yield curve inverts, this is a warning signal (see red circles):

10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity  Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity

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Upcoming Webinar: Trading Insights From Tournament Champions: Accuracy In Navigating Current Market Conditions

Upcoming Webinar: Trading Insights From Tournament Champions: Accuracy In Navigating Current Market Conditions

Trading Insights From Tournament Champions Accuracy In Navigating Current Market Conditions

The BearProwl is the grand winner of this year’s trading tournament, with 205.16% return in just 3 weeks!

The BearProwl is a financial blogger and a veteran community member – he also won 1st Position in both the SG Active Trading Tournament 2020 and SGX Bull Charge Stock Challenge 2018.

He will be sharing how he navigates the current market conditions and how he manages his trades.

Join us as we get the top 3 tournament champions of this year’s Trading Tournament to share their trading insights!

We will also be announcing the winners of the registration prizes and 30 lucky winners of $30 Capitaland vouchers (those who traded at least 3x during tournament) during this webinar!

Register here: https://bit.ly/3tKqfP9

Date: 28 Nov Monday

Time: 7PM – 8PM

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Black Friday Promo!

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Tesla Plunged 52%, Can Things Get Worse?

Tesla Plunged 52%, Can Things Get Worse?

I’m an investor who collects businesses. And there are two things I must know.

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Willie Keng is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with a username known as @Willie and has close to 120 followers.

First, is the business fundamentally sound?

Second, am I paying a reasonable price for that piece of business?

For Tesla, I find it hard to answer both questions. Tesla’s cult-like loyalists may not like what they are about to hear: Tesla faces some real problems today.

I’ll explain.

Let’s kick off — Tesla’s background

Two engineers – Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning founded Tesla in 2003. Elon Musk invested in Tesla a year later, took over the company as CEO, and became the electric vehicle (EV) company’s largest shareholder.

Musk saw what many others couldn’t see — the huge potential of electric vehicles.

Tesla first launched the Tesla Roadster in 2009, and failed. In 2012, Tesla pivoted to create a mass market “premium” car — the Model S.

Over the years, Tesla also tested different models, including the Model X SUV and the Model Y. So far, the Model 3 is still the best-selling electric car.

Tesla’s main goal is to create EVs for all different types of cars, including trucks.

There’s no doubt. Tesla grew faster than a speeding train. Today, Tesla commands close to 70% of the entire US EV market share. And it’s now estimated Tesla will sell over a million EVs this year.

To support its colossal growth, Tesla has started production at its gigafactory in Berlin earlier in March, then later on built the first gigafactory in Shanghai.

The car maker also plans to build more factories across the world. Plus, Tesla is now one of the world’s largest supplier of battery storage systems.

Last year, Tesla’s market cap peaked at US$1 trillion, which makes it the sixth US company to achieve that value in history.

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Tencent – Dishing Out Another Special Dividend This Quarter

Tencent – Dishing Out Another Special Dividend This Quarter

I wanted to quickly run through my thoughts on the Tencent latest Q3 earnings announced yesterday.

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Brian Halim is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with a username known as @3Fs and has close to 2500 followers.

First up, operating metrics – monthly active users (MAU) is still up year on year and quarter on quarter for both Weixin + Wechat as well as Mobile QQ but as you can see, they are approaching the matured 1.3b numbers so inevitably growth is slowing down on this front.

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SEA Limited’s Q3 & 9M FY2022 Results

SEA Limited’s Q3 & 9M FY2022 Results

Unless you have been living under a rock, I’m sure you should know about all the negativity surround SEA Limited (NYSE:SE) at the moment – as a result of the economic headwinds, and with the company sinking deeper into a net loss position, it has made the painful decision to undergo a few rounds of retrenchment exercises.

The company’s top management have also made the decision to forgo their salaries until it achieves ‘self-sufficency.’ Additionally, the CEO Mr Forrest Li, also said the company will be changing its focus from growth to achieving net profit.

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Jun Yuan Lim is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with a username known as @ljunyuan and has close to 2100 followers.

Yesterday evening (15 November), the company have made available its results for the 3rd quarter, as well as for the first 9 months of the financial year 2022, and as a shareholder of the NYSE-listed company (with my average price at US$191.87), you will find my review (where I will be highlighting the good and bad) about its latest financial performance, cash flow statement, along with comments from its CEO. 

SEA Limited derives its revenue from 3 business segments:

i. Digital Entertainment – Through Garena, a leading online games developer and publisher with games such as League of Legends, Call of Duty, Arena of Valor, Free Fire, and Speed Drifters;

ii. E-commerce & Other Services – Through Shopee, a leading e-commerce platform in Southeast Asia and Taiwan, along with SeaMoney, a leading digital payments and financial services provider in Southeast Asia (one of them is Shopee Pay.)

iii. Sales of Goods – Where revenue is generated from the sales of products on the Shopee platform which SEA Limited purchases from manufacturers and third parties. 

Financial Performance (Q3 FY2021 vs. Q3 FY2022)

SEA's Q3 FY2021 vs FY2021 Financial Performance
SEA’s Q3 FY2021 vs FY2021 Financial Performance

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Manulife REIT: Buy at 14% Dividend Yield?

Manulife REIT: Buy at 14% Dividend Yield?

Manulife REIT (MUST) shares tanked 43% since the start of this year, which makes this “pure-play” US office Singapore REIT really attractive.

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Willie Keng is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with a username known as @Willie and has close to 120 followers.

What’s more today, MUST’s market cap trades at just half of what its assets are truly worth – MUST shares trade at just 0.55x P/NAV.

Why are investors so bearish about this Singapore REIT? Because of COVID? Because of rising rates? I mean, MUST shares trade like investors don’t want to be in US offices anymore.

Is that really the case? Let’s find out.

My previous article on Manulife REIT can be found here.

Background — What is Manulife REIT?

At US$666 million market cap, Manulife REIT (MUST) was the first US office REIT to be listed in Singapore, during 2016.

MUST owns freehold, class-A office assets across prime areas of US cities, including Washington DC, Los Angeles, Atlanta and so on. Back then, MUST overall occupancy rate was 96.5% — which was above average US offices’ occupancy rate.

Manulife REIT's Asset Under Management (AUM)
Manulife REIT’s Asset Under Management (AUM)

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Alphabet’s Q3 & 9M FY2022 Results Review

Alphabet’s Q3 & 9M FY2022 Results Review

Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL), commonly recognised as ‘Google’ by many, have made available its financial results for the 3rd quarter, and for the first 9 months of FY2022 ended 30 Sep 2022 late last month (25 Oct 2022.)

This post was originally posted here. The writer, Jun Yuan Lim is a veteran community member and blogger on InvestingNote, with a username known as @ljunyuan and has close to 2100 followers.

Most of us should be very familiar with the company’s range of products and/or service, including the Google Search Engine, Gmail, the operating system of Android phones, video streaming site YouTube, among others.

The company generates its revenue from ads on its platforms, sales of products and/or services (such as apps, in-app purchases, digital content products, and hardware), and subscription-based products such as YouTube Premium and YouTube TV. 

I have invested in the company since 29 Apr 2022 (before the 1-for-20 stock split) with my average price at US$114.00.

Hence, I look forward to studying its quarterly results to check on the ‘health’ of the company to make sure that it continues to remain ‘fundamentally sound.’ 

In this post, you’ll find key aspects about its financial results and debt profile, along with the CEO and CFO’s comments, as well as whether at its current traded price, it is considered to be ‘cheap’/‘expensive’, and my thoughts to share:

Financial Results – Q3 FY2021 vs. Q3 FY2022

Alphabet Inc's Financial Performance - Q3 FY2021 vs. Q3 FY2022
Alphabet Inc’s Financial Performance – Q3 FY2021 vs. Q3 FY2022

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